Iowa Democratic Caucus results are here. Very early on the delegate take breaks down like this:
Senator John Edwards : 33.06%
Senator Barack Obama : 32.20%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 32.14%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.78%
Senator Joe Biden : 0.70%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.08%
Uncommitted : 0.04%
Precincts Reporting: 433 of 1781
It’s tight as a tick, as Dan Rather might say.
I have MSNBC on the tube and, as of 8:52 EST, Huckabee has 36%, Romney 23%, and Thompson 14%.
What’s really interesting about this is that it seems to be almost a completely media generated storm. In terms of actual delegates, Iowa is fairly inconsequential. But, with a 24 hour news cycle, the media demands winners and losers. The narratives they create will tend toward being self-fulfilling prophecies. If the Clinton campaign is “devastated” because of a 3rd place finish in Iowa, it’s only because the chattering classes say so; not because she came in 10 delegates fewer than Obama or Edwards.
Update
It looks like Obama is going to come in first in Iowa. Edwards and Clinton are currently neck-and-neck. Obama – 36.42%, Edwards – 30.42%, and Clinton – 30.12% with 1473/1781 precincts reporting. Chris Matthews is already becoming insufferable. “Hillary Clinton has been rejected by 2/3s of the Democrats.” Rachel Maddow quickly pointed out the obvious — in a three way tie all of them are being rejected by 2/3s of the voters.
In the Republican primary, Mike Huckabee won pretty big with 34% versus 25% for Romney and 14% for Fred Thompson. It bears mentioning that Ron Paul outpolled Rudy Giuliani – 10% to 4%. You know, as I think about it, I think Giuliani’s campaign was ended by Joe Biden when he said of Giuliani “There’s only three things he mentions in a sentence — a noun, a verb, and 9/11.”
Update II Obama’s lead continues to inch upward. With 1701 of 1781 precincts reporting, Obama has 37% of the delegates compared to 30% for Edwards and 29% for Clinton. One of the big stories from tonight might be turnout. Apparently something like 212,000 Iowans turned out for Democratic caucuses, up something like 70% from 2004 which was considered a pretty big showing at the time. If my math is right on the Republican side — and it may well be wrong — it looks like about 117,000 showed up for the Republican caucuses. If that is at all reflective of the respective levels of enthusiasm among the parties, November 2008 could make November 2006 look like a fond memory for the GOP.
Update III An interesting statistic relative to Update II:
Total Voter Turnout (approximate)
356,000
Percentage of total vote
24.5% Obama
20.5% Edwards
19.8% Clinton
11.4% Huckabee (R)
I’m a little surprised by the Democratic results in Iowa. Living by Chicago I hear a lot about Obama; but didn’t think he had that kind of support in Iowa.
BTW, here’s a song that sums up my memories of that state: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WyeYOhWU28I
Sorry, link not working. It’s Heywood Banks “I-80.” Basically the song is “Bettendorf…Davenport….corn…corn…corn…corn…Des Moines…corn corn corn corn corn corn…Missouri River.” Says it all.
I’d be pretty happy with an Obama/Edwards or Edwards/Obama ticket. I don’t care which order.
With Kucinich as Secretary of Health, Educations and Welfare, and Mike Gravel, the guy who read the Pentagon Papers into the Congressional Record, as Director of National Intelligence.
Heh. Well, a man can dream…
For the first time since Gore “lost”, I have hope for our nation. I hadn’t picked a candidate yet, and over the past two years my gaze has gone from Obama, to Biden, to McCain, to Edwards, and to Paul. I’ve been all over the map and generally dismayed that I was going to have to pick the lesser of two evils again this year.
Obama has changed that. Yesterday I did some more research on his stance on certain issues, and he tends to line up more than any other Democrat. I recently rented and watched “Senator Obama goes to Africa” and was impressed not just with his genuine kindness, but with his curiosity about the world.
And then last night, his speech was just over the moon. I don’t think I’ve ever been this enamored with any candidate, for any office, in my entire life. I think it was a true “Kennedy Moment” for my generation.
I agree with Branden, an Obama / Edwards ticket would be amazing. Though I wouldn’t want it the other way around, and I doubt Edwards will pursue V.P. again. We need to show the world the most opposite face of George Bush, and Obama is that face.
I remember my first year at university ,it was September,1960, the Kennedy-Nixon campaign with enthusiastic college students putting up long, draping posters covering the whole facade of the dorm buildings ,imitating JFKs accent with messages such as ‘Lets go fowahd with viguh’.I still remember the positve,totally involved atmosphere.I also remember my senior year as I was registering for my last semester and hearing about the Kennedy assassination. Those are the political bookends of my university education.There’s been lots of anger on campuses since 1960,but maybe Obama can bring back that golden atmosphere of unrestrained positivism that only youth can abandon itself to.
I’m a little jealous that I never really experienced that sort of atmosphere. My pale imitation was the ’92 Perot candidacy which stood in opposition to the tired Bush I and the triangulating Clinton.
Lou, that is my biggest fear for Obama – that some crazy person (or some well organized conspiracy?) will take him out during the campaign.
Let’s be honest, there is still a sizeable minority in our country that would be very much against a black President. Let alone one that is very much against the status quo and who wants to fight the interests that currently drive the political machine.
I hope for his sake he has very, very good security.
Paul said:
Yeah…I was born in 1977…I never knew unrestrained positivism and youth went together!
I think Edwards would take the VP slot again. He wants to change things. The tie-breaking vote in the Senate is a pretty good way to do that. Plus, sometimes it can be a stepping stone to the Presidency.
The Obama speech didn’t move me, but I could see how it could reach people. My perfect candidate wouldn’t be talking about “hope” and “coming together”. He or she would be talking about how to kick the shit out of the bastards that have abused my constitution, environment, and country in general. Then he/she would rattle off a bunch of specifics regarding alternative energy, paying off the debt, etc., like some offensively-competent Gore-bot. That candidate wouldn’t get elected because he would probably alternately offend Chris Matthews’ sensibilities and then bore him.
I’ll still pull for Obama, or Edwards, or Clinton in the general.
Yeah, I could go for any of these. But Obama actually inspires me to hope again. And he did talk about the Constitution and Rights last night. Watch the speech again. It was an awesome moment.
To think that 100,000 new people came out to caucus.. spending hours in freezing weather to make a difference is the reason this may be more than just a blip on the Clinton highway. And NH allows independents to vote either way… watch out Hill.
BTW, I predicted almost the exact outcome on my blog prior to yesterday — EXCEPT THOMPSON.
What do you all think about the Rep results?
I will say about Obama that I am glad the guy generating all the excitement is in my party, not the other one.
Republicans can’t be happy right now. As Doug mentioned, they got beat 2 to 1 in attendance. Their top-dollar guy got second and thinks he won a silver medal. If he wants to make Olympic comparisons, he’s Bode Miller in the last Olympics. Big expectations, big flameout. Unless the media really kicks in with “We just love this idiot so much because he’s so likeable” crap about Huckabee, he shouldn’t really win the nomination. Rudy’s early flameout probably helps the party because he was damaged goods due to making Bill Clinton look like a paragon of virtue. I imagine they’ll have to shack up with McCain in the end.
I am happy with Obama. He’s done a good job for Illinois. He doesn’t have the baggage of Hillary. Was not impressed with Edward’s speech at all last night.
On the Republican side, I can say that this is the reason why I’ve been driven away from that party in the last four years.
Paul, when I was a soph. at IU I remember at Teter Quad every window had a Bush/Quayle sign in it-except one with a Dukakis/? sign. Wouldn’t say it was “youthful enthusiasm” behind those signs-just wanting to keep the status quo.
What so many independant-minded voters don’t want is a continuation of the staus quo where personality and culture take precedence over programs and results.The status quo campaign would be Clinton vs Romney,and it would turn off most americans at the same time energizing each party’s base.It would be a campaign off the blogs with new talking points each morning.
My favorite two candidates now are Obama and Edwards,both idealists: one based on visionary concepts of coming together and unity of the country,so everything is possible,and one based on idealism sprouting from cynicism and anger ( the latter would be Edwards and
parallels how many Americans feel, including myself)
At this early date, the two would make a great team for the USA.
Rev. AJB,
Dukakis’s running mate was Lloyd Bentsen of Texas. I’m younger than you (I was in junior high in 1988) and didn’t have to look it up.
I guess that, between us, that makes me the more pathetic politics geek. :)
Branden,
I remembered it was something like that but was too tired to look it up and too proud to mis-spell it;-)
Looks like 2008 is going to be an interesting year. When we left LP Field in Nashville after The Music City Bowl last Monday, there were some Ron Paul supporters handing out leaflets, I am undecided about the general election but am leaning towards Obama. It’s unfortunate that as a registered Republican I will be unable to vote for any Democrats in the Kentucky primary, but as has been pointed out, (and one of the justifiable criticisms of the compressed primary season is that by the time of the Kentucky primary, as well as the Indiana primary in May, more than likely the nominee will be decided, presumably on Feb. 5 the earliest “Super Tuesday” ever.) There is still speculation that Michael Bloomberg may jump in as an Indendent Candidate. I was inspired by Obama’s speech in Iowa Thursday evening. I liked Huckabee’s speech as well. I guess since I have to choose in the Kentucky primary my vote there will either go to Huckabee or McCain.