Tim Storey, writing for NCSL’s “The Thicket” has a blog post entitled Reapportionment is Coming. Reapportionment is the decennial process by which Congressional seats are apportioned among the states. Since the total number of Congressional seats are capped at 435, as the population shifts in the U.S., the allotment of Congressional seats has to be shifted accordingly.
Among other things:
Redistricting consultant Kim Brace of Election Data
Services ran the 2006 estimates through the apportionment formula and
found that if the 2006 data were used, six states would gain seats in
the U.S. House (and electoral votes), and seven states would lose a
seat. The winners: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, Texas (+2) and
Utah. And the states losing seats: Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts,
Missouri, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Brace’s full analysis is
available here.Redistricting consultant Clark Bensen of Polidata
Incorporated took the 2006 estimates and projected them forward to 2010
and found even more change. Bensen projects these big gainers: Texas
(+4), Florida (+2), and Arizona (+2) with Georgia, Nevada, Oregon,
Washington and Utah each gaining one seat. Bensen’s projected losers:
Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota,
Missouri, New Jersey, New York (-2), Ohio (-2) and Pennsylvania.
Furthermore, Bensen predicts that the average number of people in each
U.S, House district would be close to 725,000 after the 2010 round of
redistricting. The complete Polidata analysis is here.
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