HB 1038 which calls for a referendum on Indiana’s time has been introduced, appropriately enough by Rep. Kreg Battles. Battles took the seat of former Rep. Troy “I’ll never vote for it” Woodruff. Woodruff reneged on his promise to his constituents not to vote for Daylight Saving Time. By doing so, he became the deciding vote in passing the Daylight Saving Time bill which had apparently sustained more fatal blows than Rasputin only to keep coming back. Woodruff effectively traded his political life for that of the DST bill.
Battles’ referendum bill calls for a public question on the ballot that asks (1) whether all Indiana should be located in the same time zone; and (2) if all Indiana could be located in the same time zone, whether it should be located in the Central Time Zone or the Eastern Time Zone.
I don’t particularly like the chances of this bill passing, but I don’t see any downside to reminding voters of how DST was adopted without any real consensus.
I agree, I really don’t like the chance of this bills passage.
But I got to thinking, what if hypothetically the question passes that the entire state should be on the same time zone passes and Eastern Passes. I really don’t see the chance that NW and SW Indiana would go on EST. I could really see the Feds putting a stop to that. Likewise, I see it hard to mandate SE Indiana (especially near Louisville, Cincinatti) go to CDT if Cental is the time of choice. If I were to take a guess, this will not make it out of commitee.
IMO they should leave this issue alone. It’s as good as it’s going to get in Indiana……
And looking at the population of Indiana, let’s say the vote is 50-50. What then??
I’d agree that all 92 counties being in one time zone will not happen (unless Congress mandates year round Daylight Saving). Having lived in Porter County I can say that in that part of the State there is no issue at all. They will stay on Central and observe DST. Which time zone to be in is an issue only in the part of the State which was on Eastern and did not observe DST. Of those 77 counties 75 remain in the Eastern Zone and observe DST and two are on Central Time.
The conclusion though that current location for the time line is as “good as it’s going to get in Indiana” is drawn out of thin air. In my view the issue as to what would be best for the formerl non-DST counties hasn’t been taken up since 1967 when the DOT concluded that the evidence was mixed and suggested that the state move to Eastern time and NOT observe Daylight Saving as a compromise.
A lot has changed since 1967. In fact a lot has changed since 2002. The Indiana Chamber of Commerce rests a great deal of its argument for the state being on Eastern Time on the point that the state trades more with the Eastern Zone than it does with Central. Against this fact is the counter argument that Indiana trades more with the Central, Mountain and Pacific zones on a cumulative basis than it does with the Eastern Zone, and given that each incremental hour of time difference has a negative effect on trade we are hurting ourselves by having a two hour difference with the Mountain zone and a three hour difference with the Pacific zone instead of a one hour and a two hour difference, respectively.
What I think will show up in a few years is that the level of trade we have with the Eastern zone has fallen greatly. Statistically our trade with the Eastern zone is dominated by shipments of autoparts to Michigan and Ohio. Over the last 10 years, and particularly over the last five years we have had dozens of auto parts related factories in Indiana close (including one in Wabash just this last week that put about 800 out of work). The commodity flow studies being used by the Chamber were published in 2004 and reflect what was occurring in the state during the 1998-2002 period. The next set of studies are due out in 2009 and will reflect what occurred during 2003-2007.
The Indiana Chamber of Commerce wants us to set state time zone policy by looking in the rear view mirror. And in this case the rear view mirror doesn’t even show what is immediately behind us, it shows us where we were 6 to 10 years ago. Back then much more of the state was living on the tattering coattails of Detroit than is true today. But we won’t see the change being reflected in the government statistics until the commodity flow study for 2012 is issued in 2014. Or we could look up from the Chamber’s steady stream of hogwash and see the shuttered factories in Anderson, Muncie, Marion, Auburn, Fort Wayne, and even Indianapolis which used to feed Detroit’s auto assembly plants but no longer do.
Most of the country’s growth is occurring the south and to the west, particularly in the Mountain Time Zone. If we want to embrace new opportunities most of the state would be better off in a mid-Western time zone, not one for Atlantic Coast states.
Just to buttress Paul’s case, here’s data directly from the U.S. Census Bureau’s website:
http://www.census.gov/prod/cen2000/phc3-us-pt1.pdf
Just scroll down to Section III-1 and III-2.
As you can see, the population center measures
have moved westward every census since the very
beginning.
Population and Geographic Centers
INTRODUCTION
For Census 2000, the Census Bureau has calculated the mean and median centers of population,
as well as the geographic center of area, for the United States. These three centers are measures
of the central tendency or average location of spatial distributions in much the same manner as a
mean or median provides an average value of a univariate distribution of a population’s age, or
years of school completed.
The mean center of population, traditionally referred to as the center of population, is shown for
Census 2000 and for each census since 1790. The median center of population is shown for
Census 2000 and for each census since 1880. The geographic center of area is shown for Census
2000. Details of the techniques for deriving each of these centers, as well as calculations of the
three centers in terms of decimals rather than in degrees, may be obtained from the Chief,
Geography Division, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, DC 20233-7400. This information is also
available on the Census Bureau’s Internet Web site at
http://www.census.gov/geo/www/cenpop/cntpop2k.html.
MEAN CENTER OF POPULATION
The mean center of population is the point at which an imaginary, flat, weightless, and rigid map
of the United States would balance if weights of identical value were placed on it so that each
weight represented the location of one person on April 1, 2000.
The mean center of population based on Census 2000 results is located at latitude 37 degrees, 41
minutes, and 49 seconds North (37° 41′ 49″ N) and longitude 91 degrees, 48 minutes, and 34 seconds
West (91° 48′ 34″ W), in Phelps County, Missouri. A commemorative marker is located in
Edgar Springs, Missouri, 2.8 miles west of the true center. See Table A on page III–2 and the maps
on pages F–9 and F–10 in Appendix F.
MEDIAN CENTER OF POPULATION
The median center is located at the intersection of two median lines, a north-south line (a meridian
of longitude) selected so that half of the Nation’s population lives east and half lives west of it,
and an east-west line (a parallel of latitude) selected so that half of the Nation’s population lives
north and half lives south of it.
The Census 2000 median center of population is located at latitude 38 degrees, 45 minutes, and
23 seconds North (38° 45′ 23″ N), and longitude 86 degrees, 55 minutes, and 51 seconds West
(86° 55′ 51″ W), in Van Buren township, Daviess County, Indiana, about 6.7 miles southeast of
Odon, Indiana. See Table B on page III–2 and the maps on pages F–9 and F–11 in Appendix F.
GEOGRAPHIC CENTER OF AREA
The geographic center of area is the point at which the surface of the United States would balance
if it were a plane of uniform weight per unit of area. That point, approximately 44 degrees, 58
minutes, and 1 second North latitude (44° 58′ 01″ N) and103 degrees, 46 minutes, and 1 second
West longitude (103° 46′ 01″ W) is located West of Castle Rock in Butte County, South Dakota, as it
has been since the 1960 census, after Alaska and Hawaii became states. See the map on page F–9
in Appendix F.
The geographic center of the conterminous United States (48 states and the District of Columbia)
is located near Lebanon in Smith County, Kansas, at approximately 39 degrees, 49 minutes, and
59 seconds North latitude (39° 49′ 59″ N) and 98 degrees, 34 minutes, and 59 seconds West longitude
(98° 34′ 59″ W).
Population and Geographic Centers III–1
U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000
Table A. Mean Center of Population of the United States: 1790 to 2000
Census year North
latitude
West
longitude Approximate location1
United States:
2000. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37° 41′ 49″ 91° 48′ 34″ In Phelps County, MO, 2.8 miles east of Edgar Springs, MO.
1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37° 52′ 20″ 91° 12′ 55″ In Crawford County, MO, 10 miles southeast of Steelville, MO.
1980. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38° 08′ 13″ 90° 34′ 26″ In Jefferson County, MO, 1/4 mile west of DeSoto, MO.
1970. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38° 27′ 47″ 89° 42′ 22″ In St. Clair County, IL, 5 miles east-southeast of Mascoutah, IL.
1960. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38° 35′ 58″ 89° 12′ 35″ In Clinton County, IL, 6-1/2 miles northwest of Centralia, IL.
1950. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38° 48′ 15″ 88° 22′ 08″ In Clay County, IL, 3 miles northeast of Louisville, IL.
Conterminous United
States:2
1950. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38° 50′ 21″ 88° 09′ 33″ In Richland County, IL, 8 miles north-northwest of Olney, IL.
1940. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38° 56′ 54″ 87° 22′ 35″ In Sullivan County, IN, 2 miles southeast by east of Carlisle, IN.
1930. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39° 03′ 45″ 87° 08′ 06″ In Green County, IN, 3 miles northeast of Linton, IN.
1920. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39° 10′ 21″ 86° 43′ 15″ In Owen County, IN, 8 miles south-southeast of Spencer, IN.
1910. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39° 10′ 12″ 86° 32′ 20″ In Monroe County, IN, in the city of Bloomington, IN.
1900. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39° 09′ 36″ 85° 48′ 54″ In Bartholomew County, IN, 6 miles southeast of Columbus, IN.
1890. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39° 11′ 56″ 85 °32′ 53″ In Decatur County, IN, 20 miles east of Columbus, IN.
1880. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39° 04′ 08″ 84° 39′ 40″ In Boone County, KY, 8 miles west by south of Cincinnati, OH.
1870. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39° 12′ 00″ 83° 35′ 42″ In Highland County, OH, 48 miles east by north of Cincinnati, OH.
1860. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39° 00′ 24″ 82° 48′ 48″ In Pike County, OH, 20 miles south by east of Chillicothe, OH.
1850. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38° 59′ 00″ 81° 19′ 00″ In Wirt County, WV, 23 miles southeast of Parkersburg, WV.3
1840. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39° 02′ 00″ 80° 18′ 00″ In Upshur County, WV, 16 miles south of Clarksburg, WV. Upshur
County was formed from parts of Barbour, Lewis, and Randolph
Counties in 1851.3
1830. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38° 57′ 54″ 79° 16′ 54″ InGrant County,WV, 19 miles west-southwest of Moorefield,WV. Grant
County was formed from part of Hardy County in 1866.3
1820. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39° 05′ 42″ 78° 33′ 00″ In Hardy County, WV, 16 miles east of Moorefield, WV.3
1810. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39° 11′ 30″ 77° 37′ 12″ In Loudoun County, VA, 40 miles northwest by west ofWashington, DC.
1800. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39° 16′ 06″ 76° 56′ 30″ In Howard County, MD, 18 miles west of Baltimore, MD. Howard
County was formed from part of Anne Arundel County in 1851.
1790. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39° 16′ 30″ 76° 11′ 12″ In Kent County, MD, 23 miles east of Baltimore, MD.
1Place names are in terms of 2000 and may not have existed at time of the recorded census.
2Conterminous United States excludes Alaska and Hawaii.
3West Virginia was set off from Virginia, Dec. 31, 1862, and admitted as a state June 20, 1863.
Table B. Median Center of Population of the United States: 1880 to 2000
Census year North
latitude
West
longitude Approximate location1
United States:
2000. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38° 45′ 23″ 86° 55′ 51″ In Daviess County, IN, 6.7 miles southeast of Odon, IN.
1990. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38° 57′ 55″ 86° 31′ 53″ In Lawrence County, IN, 5.1 miles north of Oolitic, IN.
1980. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39° 19′ 00″ 86° 08′ 15″ In Brown County, IN, 2.8 miles southwest of Princes Lakes, IN.
1970. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39° 47′ 43″ 85° 31′ 43″ In Henry County, IN, 4.7 miles northeast of Carthage, IN.
1960. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39° 56′ 25″ 85° 17′ 00″ In Henry County, IN, 4.5 miles east-northeast of New Castle, IN.
1950. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40° 00′ 12″ 85° 02′ 21″ In Wayne County, IN, 2.8 miles northeast of Economy, IN.
Conterminous United
States:2
1950. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40° 00′ 12″ 84° 56′ 51″ In Wayne County, IN, 3.2 miles south of Lynn, IN.
1940. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40° 04′ 18″ 84° 40’ 11″ In Darke County, OH, 3.5 miles southwest of Greenville, OH.
1930. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40° 11′ 52″ 84° 36′ 35″ In Darke County, OH, 1.9 miles southeast of Ansonia, OH.
1920. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40° 11′ 52″ 84° 44′ 00″ In Darke County, OH, 3.3 miles east of Union City, OH.
1910. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40° 07′ 33″ 85° 02′ 00″ In Randolph County, IN, 4.4 miles southwest of Winchester, IN.
1900. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40° 03′ 32″ 84° 49′ 01″ In Randolph County, IN, 6.7 miles east of Lynn, IN.
1890. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40° 02′ 51″ 84° 40′ 01″ In Darke County, OH, 1.8 miles north of Wayne Lakes, OH.
1880. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39° 57′ 00″ 84° 07′ 12″ In Miami County, OH, 3.5 miles east-southeast of Tipp City, OH.
1Place names are in terms of 2000 and may not have existed at time of the recorded census.
2Conterminous United States excludes Alaska and Hawaii.
III–2 Population and Geographic Centers
U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000
Table Finding
Paul presents an informed perspective, but I’d take issue with his “rearview mirror” analogy.
Yes Detroit auto manufacturing has been declining -and will likely continue for the next several years- and thus the trade statistics the state Chamber repeatedly quoted in the DST debate probably overstated Indiana’s volume of trade with states in the Eastern time zone.
BUT…other auto manufacturing has been growing, both within Indiana and in Ohio, Kentucky and Tennessee. It’s not GM, Ford or Chrysler, but Honda, Toyota, Subaru and other foreign nameplates. While shipments from Indiana to “Detroit” are declining, they are growing to these other auto manufacturers and their plant locations.
Thus, the Chamber’s core suggestion that having this entire supply network on the “same clock” (DST and on Eastern time) still holds substantial weight, particularly when one considers the tight timelines of just-in-time/lean inventory so important to auto maker economics.
That said, I don’t fully subscribe to the Chamber’s view that economic considerations of private companies should be the *only* factor considered in choosing what clock should prevail in a state or its regions.
Other factors -like abnormally late sunrises that impinge upon the public’s health & safety as well as schoolkids’ readiness to learn- are worthy of careful consideration and thoughtful discussion. After all, the Chamber doesn’t speak for everyone.
I absolutely agree with Tom Heller above. The late sunrises have more to do with the ability to learn than waiting in the dark for the bus.I taught a literature course starting at 7:30 am and it was brutal for all involved.The teens and the teacher alike just aren’t awake to think at that time…10:30 am would have been the optimum time,but we have to deal with what we have in public education,and of course something has to be taught too early or too late.And I should add this was 7:30 am CT and in Illinois.
But I agree with DOT: a government agency has nothing to do with what time school starts or what time something is taught.
Tom-
You comment that “the Chamber’s core suggestion that having this entire supply network on the “same clock†(DST and on Eastern time) still holds substantial weight,”. I disagree. The auto assembly plants in Tennessee are all on Central Time. The Gibson County Indiana plant is on Central Time. One of the Kentucky’s plants is on Central Time. The state that has seen the fastest growth in light vehicle assembly work, Alabama, observes Central Time. All of Volkswagen North American Assembly is in Mexico (as well as a fair amount of the Big Three’s). The relevant part of Mexico is on Central Time. Toyota’s newest light truck plant isin San Antonio, Texas, on Central Time.
Notwithstanding Honda’s growth in Ohio, the decline of auto related work in NE Ohio and Toledo has been larger. Ohio and Michigan have outpaced the rest of the country in the declines in their economies and employment this decade. If anything I’d say that the changes in the auto industry argue for moving to Central Time. While Honda has focused on Ohio and BMW in South Carolina, Nissan (and GM’s Saturn) have looked to Tennessee. Toyota has used a continental strategy (Texas, Kentucky, California, Indiana). Daimler is in Alabama. Of these Toyota was the one company I am aware of that formally submitted a comment to the DOT docket on the Indiana time situation and in it they endorsed putting all of Indiana on Central Time.
There is no argument that Indiana’s auto parts manufacturing has declined markedly in the last decade, and by all indications, continues to decline. With the weight of the industry shifting to the south and west and with the massive number of plant closings that have occurred in NE Ohio and Michigan I would repeat that using the Commodity Flow Survey for 2002 to fix the time zone is precisely like looking in the rear view mirror to a point in time 6 to 10 years ago.
I would add that we very unlikely to lose business to Michigan and Ohio because we have a permanent one hour time difference with those places when we operated for years with a varying time difference. I would argue the time difference has a far more depressing effect on establishing new connections than it would damage old connections.
BTW, William Testa, an economist with the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, has some informative posts on his blog regarding the automotive industry. In his 26 October post he has a fine map showing the distribution of light vehicle assembly work. See generally:
http://midwest.chicagofedblogs.org/
Paul:
Other than my expressed concern for schoolkids trying to gear up for learning when their school day starts at or before sunrise (thanks for the confirming note, Lou), I am not advocating for Eastern or Central time. I was simply suggesting that your ‘rearview mirror’ analogy (tho’ catchy) wasn’t all that robust, given the nature of the “New Detroit” that is emerging in the U.S.
When auto manufacturing locations are within an hour or two drive from their parts suppliers (as is certainly the case with those in Ohio, Indiana and Kentucky), a one-hour clock differential can work as an impediment to the smooth functioning & management of supply chains.
The existence of locations in Mexico, Tennessee and Alabama are not really all that pertinent to what clocktime is observed by Indiana suppliers. They’re a bit distant (at least a half-day drive) from Indiana, so being on their clock (Central) is far less important for efficient parts movements.
Lastly, you seem to contradict the point of your own analogy when you state “I would argue the time difference has a far more depressing effect on establishing new connections than it would damage old connections.”
Aren’t those *new* connections the very ones we’re trying to build to the Hondas, Toyotas, Subarus etc? That’s not exactly looking in the ‘rearview mirror’.
That said, I appreciate your perspective and will check out Testa’s blog. Thanks for the link!