Via Jerome at MyDD, a graph showing the progress of the Republican primary candidates in the polls:
Giuliani looks stronger than he probably is. His problem is that his poll numbers look pretty bad in initial primary states. His appeal to voters nationwide is liable to take a beating if he does poorly in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Jerome’s analysis goes on to mention the enormous fund raising success experienced by Ron Paul. Will that translate into votes? Possibly. But, I see him as this cycle’s Howard Dean — darling of the Internet and able to raise huge amounts of money very quickly, but ultimately not able to translate that support into votes in the real world. Regardless of who comes out on top, it should be a nice dust up. Look at all of the trend lines gathering at about the same level. No front runners. Just a free-for-all. I’d love to see (in either or both primaries) a convention that actually meant something and wasn’t just a scripted coronation.
Update A post by Devilstower at Daily Kos shows just how much use some of these polls and predictions are. In particular, consider a graph of the Iowa Electronic Markets, billed by some as a good predictor of political races, from 2004:
Until the votes in Iowa were counted, Dean was a juggernaut and Kerry was roadkill.
Update 2 The Hoosier Pundit has some observations about the Republican primary from the perspective of a devoted Republican. On Romney and his very conveniently timed conversions on matters of importance to conservatism: His conversions are to be welcomed, but (as one of his opponents memorably put it) I would prefer that they came on the road to Damascus and not the road to Des Moines.
Doug, In the recent past, the Republican front-runner in national polls going into the primaries has always gone on to win the nomination, which has been the opposite of the outcome on the Democratic side. Guliani’s front-runner status has always seemed tenuous. Originally, people thought McCain would hold that status but his lead quickly evaporated to the point where he virtually became irrelevant. It will be interesting to see if people rush back into his arms out of fear of Huckabee or Romney.
I expect Giuliani to get absolutely pummelled in those first three primaries. He’s conceded these, and not campaigned there except sporadically. Normally that wouldn’t be the hugest of deals. But Iowa and New Hampshire are *very important* states because their citizens take this primary business *very seriously*. Just ask them. Because of that, I expect they take offense at not being treated to repeated visits and an outlay of funds commensurate with their importance and seriousness. I expect some people who otherwise might agree with Giuliani will vote against him anyway. For that reason, expect the magnitude of the losses to be noteworthy.
As for South Carolina, I don’t think they want a gun-controllin’ fancy-pants lawyer to be their nominee. Expect Giuliani to leave South Carolina as a severely damaged candidate on a bad losing streak. He *might* get a Newsweek cover a week or so later, with the caption, “Comeback Kid?” By then the Republican establishment, daily talkers, and supporters will be getting comfortable with defending the new frontrunner against whatever old dirt he has, and won’t want to wade back into defending Rudy’s, well, being Rudy.