Obama won big in Oregon; Clinton won even bigger in Kentucky. We’ll see if the narrative changes. Obama did pretty well among working class whites in Oregon. So, it’s not really working-class whites who have a problem with him vis a vis Clinton. It’s Appalachian working-class whites. I don’t think it’s so much race as it is economics. Maybe it has something to do with people who have been ground down in an environment with little economic hope and a lot of competition for jobs along side racial tension.
Anyway, according to Democratic Convention Watch, Obama is now within 64 delegates of clinching the nomination. Clinton needs 246.
Chuck Todd,who I think is an outstanding political analysist for MSNBC had some interesting commentary about how race plays out in voting patterns. Race works both ways,either to vote for, based on race or vote against, based on race.
He pointed out that his statistical analysis says that states where racial turmoil has been an issue,like back in he 60s,with black populations between about 4 and 12 per cent then there is a white racial hostility against Obama and he has lost them,but in states such as Oregon,where Black population is 3% or under, race is no factor,and Obama is very popular.In certain states where Black population is over 13% or so, then those states also voted for Obama with a new coalition of of Black voters and college educated people and younger voters.
He also pointed out that in any state bordering Illinois,Obama did much better than the general pattern outlined,because knowing Obama evidently means voting for Obama.
Hopefully,I did justice to Todd’s analysis which was all oral and it’s hard to remember so many details without back checking a written text.
Isn’t it intereresting how tied we are to cultural historic biais held by those around us,and that our judgments become a reflection of generallly held views around us,and even our formal education modifies these views only to a limited degree? Also, how easy it is to graph and predict views by section of the country. This probably is the key and the basis of marketing.Todd’s analysis makes me think how much we are pawns in someone else’s grand plan of personal accomplishment.
It also points out that Obama has some work ahead to introduce himself to voters in states such as Ohio, Kentucky and Pennsylvania,where views may be changed to his benefit.
Also, it appears there may be a line-up of states voting democratic or republican in November different from what anyone can image looking back historically.
Lou-
I think that you have hit sevral very important points.
1) When you get to know Obama, you like him more.
2) People who have had rough economic times, need to see that voting Republican has hurt them and that ANY DEM will be better.
3) I think OH and PA can be changed enough.
4) The state-by-state wins have changed– with NM, CO, IA, MO and otehr states in play with Obama’s help.
5) The down-ticket races even in Indiana will benefit from an Obama top of the ticket.
6) A LOT of that Clinton coalition will come home– women for instance when they realize the abortion stance of the Repubs, Hispanics when they see how far McCain has to back off his reforms to win the nomination.. etc. And of course, Hillary will make a difference herself.
BTW: The role of Lion of the Senate will be opening up soon— wonder if Hillary feels likes roaring for the next couple decades? She’d have more influence in that role than ever as President.
Obama is up over McCain in the “unwinnable” state of Pennsylvania in Surey USA poll.
Meanwhile, it looks like Hillary spent about $30 million in the last month. I guess running up the score among her stated constituency of undereducated white people (who work hard!) was an expensive undertaking.
Yes, Hillary Clinton would make a good lion…er…lioness of the senate. They do the hunting anyway, right?
She’d also make a good Supreme Court Justice.
Most of all she’d make an excellent former presidential candidate. Please let that be soon.
MartyL, Are you sure about the SCOTUS?!? From her law record, I think NOT!
The SCOTUS doesn’t keep billing records, so she should be fine.
That wasn’t what I was thinking of. I was dredging up her Solonic (that’s sarcasm) work during Watergate.
Turnout seemed to be heavy yesterday morning when I voted. For a primary I don’t remember lines like this since I moved to Kentucky. It’s interesting that Obama carried only two counties in Kentucky, Jefferson (Louisville), and Fayette (Lexington). Since I’m a registered Republican I wasn’t eligible to vote for Obama or Clinton. There seems to be a disconnect between urban and rural areas in Kentucky. I will have to make some big decisions between now and November 4 like many folks in the USA will have to make. One of the arguments many have made about Kentuckians is that they are “white working class” voters. I guess I don’t fit into that demographic since I am college educated, although not a Kentucky native. Barring any major events happening between now and November 4, I find myself torn between Obama and McCain. I guess I’m part of that disconnect also.
Maybe picking up a copy of “The Real McCain” could help. Sure it’s oppo research, and it’s only about 150 pages. But it looks like there’s at least two flip-flops, examples of rank hypocrisy, or other such irritations crammed into each page.
Or just remember that his pastor of choice thinks Hitler was an instrument of God, sent for the purpose of getting the Jews to relocate to Israel. I vote that eight years of a politician whose inner voices say strange, destructive things is enough for a while.
Or just remember that his pastor of choice thinks Hitler was an instrument of God, sent for the purpose of getting the Jews to relocate to Israel. I vote that eight years of a politician whose inner voices say strange, destructive things is enough for a while.
First, Hagee iss not his “pastor of choice”. McCain does not belong to that church. Next, said pastor already appologized to the Catholic League for his anti-Catholic remarks.
Not sure where the quote you speak of comes from, but I doubt the veracity of it.
Geez T. You’re hooked into the vast left wing conspiracy. I just googeled “mccain pastor jews”. That story came out in The Nation a mere 10 hours ago!
Hagee is not McCain’s pastor. Hagee is not Jerimiah Wright, and his relationship is not comparable to the one between Wright and Barockstar Millhouse Obamessiah.
Not that McCain can’t be a holier than though hypocrite. Not that he hasn’t been one 300 times in his life (150 pages, two per page).
McCain’s smearing of Romney on the issue of pulling out of Iraq is a good example.
I just think that the Hagee smear is total BS.
Thanks T for the heads up on “The Real McCain”, I have the utmost respect for McCain going through being a prisoner of war, but am leaning towards Obama in the general on November 4. I have to admit being somewhat pissed off that the perception is that Kentuckians are a bunch of uneducated rubes. It seems like some of the pundits (following the news cycles no doubt) try to box each and every voter into some of the pre-conceived notions that voters must follow some particular pattern based on income, education, etc. One of the things I admire about Obama is that he has been saying that is one of the things we need to get away from, after all we’re all in this together. I’m going to try to pick up that book, am going on a canoe trip this Memorial Day weekend, but will try to get it next week.
Josh Marshall had a great quote about McCain/Hagee today on Talking Points Memo today.
I saw the video of Hagee saying it. He even did one of those, “People are going to take offense” deals with it.
McCain chose to associate with this guy after the guy said these things. He chose that association in order to pander to the people who go to that church. If he wants to pander to get those votes (rather than just campaigning on issues) by basically seeking out the papa bear of that group he’s pandering to, then he gets the baggage that comes along with it.
Regarding Obama, he went to a black church, became a politician, and then it was found that the pastor was a wacko. McCain used to be sensible and steered clear of these charismatic big money southern preachers with their TV shows, political activism, self-styled universities with racist policies (Bob Jones), etc. Then he decided to have a politically expedient epiphany and get him sumothat old time religion right quick to shore up a glaring weakness in his Republican portfolio. But just like how he ended up picking a bunch of lobbyists with ties to dictators and terrorists, he didn’t do his homework and picked some real certifiably crazy religions nuts to hitch his wagon to. I don’t see that this is obviously better than Obama’s situation. I think it’s quite a bit worse.