Brian Howey has a column suggesting that Mike Pence shouldn’t be measuring for drapes in the Governor’s office quite this early.
Sure, Pence has deep pocketed donors, a lot of name recognition, and the ability to talk; not to mention that Hoosiers are tribally more inclined to identify with Republicans these days. So, you can understand if he’d take things for granted and not feel the need to bother telling Hoosiers what he’d do if he’s chosen for the job. Just let him ascend to the pulpit office already.
And, Howey, acknowledges (as do I) that Pence has to be regarded as the favorite, he sets out a few challenges Pence has:
1. Pence is a Congressman, and Congress is about as popular as the plague right now. It’s less popular than Nixon during Watergate.
2. Pence might get caught up in either evangelical dislike of Mitt Romney or moderates distaste for Santorum.
3. Pence might be very unpopular with women given his attacks on Planned Parenthood – an issue which has suddenly become much more relevant with things like Bob Morris’ Girl Scout Communist, tactical arm of Planned Parenthood ravings or Santorum’s sugar daddy aspirin between the knees “joke” or Rush Limbaugh’s slut shaming of the student who wanted to testify about the importance of contraception.
4. Pence’s silence about the having or not having an agenda when he becomes Governor; other than some vague allusion to jobs. “Stay the course” on Daniels’ jobs agenda might be less viable to the extent that Daniels’ jobs record turns out to be illusory.
5. Pence’s tendency toward theocracy. Having one’s religion inform one’s policy decisions is one thing – it’s inevitable, and it’s not a bad thing. Having one’s perceived religious duties trump one’s civic duties is more troublesome in a public servant. And that’s the persona Pence has chosen to create for himself. If that’s also the reality of the man, so much the worse. Charlatans are less troublesome for a civic society than True Believers.
Finally, of course, his challenger is legitimate. I’m hard pressed to think of a state Democrat who is more viable than John Gregg. He was a fairly successful Speaker of the House, able to work pretty well with a Republican Senate from 1996 – 2003. And the man is a charismatic speaker. At LSA, we had closed circuit audio from the Floor of the House piped into the office. He was entertaining to listen to — has a folksy charm about him. I’m guessing he won’t be prone to the type of off-putting campaign rhetoric as Jill Long Thompson, such as her frequent reminder that she has a PhD. Gregg will be much better at connecting with the Hoosier Everyman.
That said, Gregg has to be regarded as the underdog. Pence has the advantage. But, if he fails to simply take the office by acclamation and has to reveal who he is and what he intends to do, I think he’ll start to struggle. In Congress, he’s been allowed to talk in generalities and not do anything specific for the last decade.
fellers….will Pence go to Mitch to ask for a lesson on how to speak with a fake twang?
Regarding #3 Planned Parenthood, PP is probably more disliked by women than men. Running against PP, a very unpopular organization in the Hoosier state, hardly would cost Pence votes.
Paul:
It’s probably wishful thinking on your part to believe that women “dislike” Planned Parenthood.
The groundswell of support for PP under unprincipled attack by “conservatives” is ample evidence to refute your statement.
PP is not “a very unpopular organization in the Hoosier state”, but an essential provider of services to women who can’t afford care in the private sector.
For instance, when Mitch defunded PP, their donations went through the roof. Paul, God love him, has always hung out with a group of people who are abortion jihadists and it skewers his reading of the race.
Best part of Pence’s theocracy? He doesn’t mind money changers in the temple. Hell, he positively encourages them
Paul, I ask the same question as stAllio below: on what do you base the assertion that Planned Parenthood is “more disliked” by women than men?
paul ogden, do you have any support for your claim that “PP is probably more disliked by women than men”? i am quite skeptical.
Plural anecdotes isn’t data and all of that, but the women I know have a very favorable view of Planned Parenthood; mostly because it provided low cost access to birth control in their late teens and early 20s.
Doug, I hope you’re right, but I’ve seen no evidence that Gregg has a campaign that’s together enough to pose a challenge. I know it’s early, but I also don’t see the Indiana Democratic Party as being very helpful.
I also note you didn’t reference RTW as someone that would help Gregg / hurt Pence. I am of the opinion it won’t matter in this election but could be an election issue in four years.
My take is that right-to-work is not an issue with broad resonance (though I believe the issue has a broader impact than is generally acknowledged), but it will make unions and union members a lot more energetic.
Gregg fairly threw this issue away when he advised folks to move on from it. Certainly the issue makes union members more energetic, but that energy might be directed to Indiana House or Senate candidates if Gregg doesn’t more appreciatively court them.
Good thing no one is listening;)
Then again, John Gregg is an Indiana Democrat, which makes him somewhat to the right of national moderate Republicans…which makes this liberal sad. He probably does favor RTW, until someone reminds him the only organizations which support Democrats in Indiana are union ones.
Which is an odd data point. It’s almost like Republicans and the Chamber went for RTW so they could cynically de-fund one of the only sources of Democratic campaign cash….
Either that or they think Mississippi really is a state to emulate
It’s almost like Republicans and the Chamber went for RTW so they could cynically de-fund one of the only sources of Democratic campaign cash….
That is exactly why they did it. The unions are responsible for this, they should have spread their money around a little bit.
Either that or they think Mississippi really is a state to emulate
No, Texas is.
Buzzcut, I’m thinking blaming the unions for what happened to them is a bit like blaming the victim of a crime. The Chamber sure doesn’t spread its money around.
At any rate, you want a one party state, you get corruption and stagnation. Just like Texas.
Sure, more energetic, but enough to make a difference in the race? That’s what I struggle to see.
I think people continue to overestimate how “social issues” will negatively impact a Republican candidate, especially one running in Indiana.
While trends on some social issues, such as same-sex marriage, are trending upwards, the abortion debate is still pretty much evenly divided by pro-choice and pro-life (47 and 47 each, according to Gallop). And while defunding Planned Parenthood might fan the flames among liberal Democrats, I don’t think you’ll be seeing moderate Republicans sit on their hands just because of that.
And you overlook a big factor, Doug, that Joe hinted at: The Indiana Democratic Party is in shambles right now. And it isn’t just the typical debate and tug-of-war between Lake and Marion County VS the rest of the state. The organization just isn’t there. It’ll be very difficult, regardless of how good a candidate John Gregg or Joe Donnelly are, if the infrastructure isn’t there to support them in a state wide campaign.
+1. When 2012 is done, the Senate and House will both be supermajority Republican, and Pence will be governor. Indiana is MORE Republican than even the current numbers indicate, and “God and Guns” and some of the more extreme aspects of conservatism are an asset, not a liability.
Do you personally think that the more extreme aspects of conservatism are an asset to Indiana, or just to the electoral prospects of Republicans?
My thought would be the latter.
I do not have access to the polling date that Buzzcut must have, but I would not dispute most of it. Most of Indiana has become yellow dog Republican county. But operationally and economically, “God and guns” won’t get you much more than elected.
I used to joke that the Mason Dixon line ran just north of Muncie. Now I believe that Indiana is the most northerly Confederate state.
this, plus 100
Social issues are the distraction that enables more Indiana plutocrats to take the wealth of the state and leave the rest of us behind. The uneducated and under-employed, as Hoosiers have long demonstrated, are more than willing to blame “the other guy” for their problems.
Still, that’s cool….the same demographic changes which are coming to the rest of Indiana are coming here and one can expect people losing control to hold on tighter to reactionary policies
Maybe. It seems to me that the “God and Guns” folks can be persuaded that the personal income tax needs to be cut, if not eliminated.
The combination of right-to-work and no income tax is what gets you into the top-10 states in terms of economic growth. It might be tough, though, since we don’t really have a natural resources play like the real low tax states do. It’s going to take some innovative thinking in that regard.
Don’t forget new public sector jobs, Buzz. That is a substantial contributing factor to the Texas miracle.
Texas Jobs:
Public sector: up 115,000
Private Sector: down 40,000
Nearly $250 billion in federal government spending in 2009 didn’t hurt either.
This is a dream that is impossible to realize, since it does not exist.
Social metrics for state’s with this sort of public policy are akin to Third World countries. Buzzcut is a neo-feudalist
Most of the above is true, but is certainly one-sides reporting.
Let’s not forget the other side of this coin. Gregg left the Indiana legislature a decade ago, has little name recognition, and had been serving as a Lobbyist for quite a while. I am sure the electorate is less than excited about electing such a person, despite Pence’s perceived faults.
Being a lobbyist didn’t hurt Dan Coats
If you don’t think it hurt Coats, you must not have been paying attention. Let’s describe the primary and the general election.
In the Primary, Coats, who had previously served as Senator, had two competitors, a State Senator from Northern Indiana and a fomer Congressman from Southern Indiana that had been beat BADLY by Ellsworth in his last election. Despite that, Coats received less than 40% of the primary vote. Not exactly a rining endorsement for our former, senator, eh? I would not be surprised if Coats finished 2nd in a majority of the House District Totals, but I can’t find that info.
As you may know, Republicans won every single 2010 state-wide office. Coats was one of those winners. But if you look at the vote totals, you will find that our returning Senator Coats RECEIVED LESS VOTES THAN EVERY OTHER REPUBLICAN STATEWIDE (emphasis added for effect). Put another way, all it took to win in 2010 was an R after your name. Coats was therefore the weakest R statewide (unless you believe the crazy idea that Ellsworth was the best Dem campaigner). It probably should be pointed out that the people elected in 2010 included Charlie White, whose candidacy was already under attack. So yeah, it hurt him.
I can’t say any of your nay saying about Gregg’s prospects are wrong. But, I think he’d make a good Governor because I think he’s pretty well in tune with Hoosiers and showed some competence at governing when he was Speaker. I haven’t seen anything like that from Pence.
I’ve mostly heard why Pence is going to win and not much about why anyone thinks he’s the better choice.
My experience has been that you can tell a candidate who is both very confident in what the polls are telling him, and is very self-disciplined, when he is virtually invisible, as Pence has been. The attitude that such front-runners display says, “It’s mine until you make the better case for it”. It’s very annoying and doesn’t do any service to the voters, but it usually isn’t incorrect.
Pence strikes me as cross between the infamous Hoosier Governor Ed Jackson and the fictional midwestern preacher Elmer Gantry.
Politicos from the pulpit have a storied history in Indiana, all going down in flames rather ingloriously.
Interesting analogy. Who will be Pence’s D.C. Stephenson?