I just came across a good diary by Brian Wasik at Daily Kos on Indiana’s Congressional races. Mostly it focuses on the Hostettler/Ellsworth race (IN-08), but there is also discussion, particularly in the comments, on Souder/Hayhurst (IN-03); Sodrel/Hill (IN-09), and Chocola/Donnelly (IN-02).
Thanks for the plug Doug. It made for a good discussion, especially as Conservatives wonder what happened in Indiana.
I think we’re seeing a return of pre-1994 Indiana. The bell-weatehr MidWest state that this is. I think most Hoosiers are moderate-minded and look for results. I think most don’t like what they see in the far-right base of the republican party and Dems are helped by good popluist, down-to-earth candidates. And I think economic issues are playing well at bringing home blue-collar workers that left the Dem party over NAFTA.
It will be interesting to see if the “regional patterns” in the Congressional races is echoed in state legislative races. The Republicans seem to be in trouble north and south, but less so in the center. The problems they have in the south seem similar to problems the GOP is having in the Ohio and Kentucky parts of the Ohio Valley. From what I have read, the southern oriented Ohio Valley (excluding historically Republican oriented Cincinnati) seems to be reverting to historical patterns after many years of Republican inroads. The problems of Republicans in Northern Indiana, many parts of which have long been Republican (Lake and St. Joseph Counties have of course been Democrat strongholds), seem to me in part connected with a growing sense that the State Republican Party exists to serve the interests of the Indianapolis suburbs. That the concerns of the north about DST, the time zone issue and the toll road were dealt with so summarily only clinched this impression.
A closing thought, the 1994 election has significance because I think people see that the “Contract” the Republicans used so effectively to highlight the endemic corruption of a Congress long controlled by the Democrats now highlights their own corruption. They simply have been in power too long.
As an historical precedent though I suggest the 1958 election as possibly more significant.