As I mentioned before Clinton and Obama essentially split the Super Tuesday campaigns. But the stories coming out of the two campaigns tonight are dramatically different. Clinton had to loan her campaign $5 million and some of her staffers are “voluntarily” going unpaid. Meanwhile, the Obama campaign is set to have raised $5 million in the past 24 hours.

While this is almost certainly good news for the Obama campaign, nobody should start gloating yet. I was a huge Howard Dean supporter back in 2003-2004, and I remember feeling pretty confident as Dean was raising wads of cash and Kerry was loaning himself money. Turns out that confidence was misplaced. However, this sort of cash disparity this far into the campaign strikes me as a different animal. I’ve also heard reports that something like 80% of Clinton contributors have reached the donation limit whereas more like 20% – 30% of Obama’s supporters have hit the limit.

Still, the worst thing for the Obama campaign would be for the candidate or his supporters to get too smug and start taking things for granted just about now.

Niki Kelly, writing for the Fort Wayne Journal Gazette, has an article on the Senate’s consideration of HB 1001 which makes some pretty significant tax changes. In particular, it raises the sales tax from 6% to 7% in order to reduce property taxes. One of the House provisions that is being received with particular skepticism in the Senate is an increase in the Earned Income Tax Credit, which provides tax reductions and wage supplements for low-and moderate-income Hoosiers.

Kenley and members of the Senate committee believe the EITC should be considered in a future session. Advocates for low and moderate income Hoosiers say it’s necessary because the increase in the sales tax disproportionately impacts lower income Hoosiers.

Here is where it becomes evident that we’re dealing with tax restructuring and not tax “reform.” Whether it’s “reform” or something else depends on where you’re sitting. The taxes are shifting from one taxpayer to another. According to one study, a family of 4 making $20,600 will pay an additional $157 in sales tax. Under the House version they would save $121 with the EITC. There is also a proposed renters deduction that would apparently save them an additional $85 if they rent.

Super Tuesday has come and gone and, while it got the job done, it was less super than anticipated. On the Democratic side, it was more or less a wash with Clinton and Obama pretty much giving as good as they got. That means that the post-Super Tuesday primaries will be meaningful.

On the Republican side, it looks McCain is in the driver’s seat with what has to be a troublesome trend of not winning in any of the typically “red” states other than his home state of Arizona as well as Oklahoma. Romney took Alaska, Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, and Utah. Huckabee took Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, and West Virginia. McCain also took California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey, and New York.

From here on out, the primary schedule is as follows:

* February 9: Louisiana, Kansas (R), Washington (D caucuses)
* February 10: Maine (D caucuses)
* February 12: District of Columbia, Maryland, Virginia
* February 19: Hawaii (D), Washington (R primary), Wisconsin

* March 4: Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont
* March 8: Wyoming (D)
* March 11: Mississippi

* April 22: Pennsylvania

* May 6: Indiana, North Carolina
* May 13: Nebraska (primary), West Virginia
* May 20: Kentucky, Oregon
* May 27: Idaho (R)

* June 3: Montana, New Mexico (R), South Dakota

Update John Cole brings us some reporting from the murky world of Democratic delegate counting.

The Obama camp projects topping Clinton by nine delegates, 845 to 836.

NBC News, which is projecting delegates based on the Democratic Party’s complex formula, figures Obama will wind up with 840 to 849 delegates, versus 829 to 838 for Clinton.

Ridiculously close no matter what. Given the institutional advantages Clinton has but with the ground Obama has covered in recent weeks, at this point I’d characterize this race as two souped up cars going ridiculously fast with Obama going maybe a mile an hour faster and Clinton maybe a half car length ahead. Meanwhile, the Republicans seem to be playing bumper cars.

From the inimitable John Hodgman:

HOPE
AND VOTE

NO MATTER WHOM YOU ARE SUPPORTING, there are few actions that are so profoundly entwined and joyfully United Statesean as these.

AND FEWER STILL that have been so hard won, and so nobly, by those who were unable to do either.

AS YOU KNOW, these two rights and responsibilities of citizenship were not won in 1776.

IF YOU ARE TO BELIEVE JEFFERSON, we were born with them long before that year, for one is liberty, and the other the pursuit of happiness.

AND EVEN AFTER OUR REVOLUTION, many of us had years of fighting still before they got them.

AND WE ARE ALL STILL FIGHTING, year after year, election day after election day. Because as difficult as it is to accept, there are those still, this very day, who will rob us of both if they can.

PLUS: you get a little sticker and maybe a brownie if there’s a bake sale on.

SEE YOU AT THE POLLS.

That is all.

For those of you in need of an early Super Tuesday fix, it appears that Mike Huckabee has won the Republican caucuses in West Virginia. My understanding is that on the first round of voting, Romney had a decent lead but not enough to win, Huckabee was in second place, and McCain didn’t stay in contention. McCain had instructed his supporters to throw their support to Huckabee, and that apparently put Huckabee over the top.

At the first go round, Romney had 464 vote, Huckabee 375, McCain 176, Paul 118. Second ballot wound up Huckabee 567, Romney 521, McCain 12. It is a winner take all state, so Huckabee gets all 18 delegates with 51.6% of the vote to Romney’s 47.4%.

I didn’t watch the Super Bowl last night, but apparently Barack Obama ran an ad. To me, the best line from the ad was “The world as it is, is not the world as it has to be.”

The realists in the world often use the state of reality as an excuse not to do anything. I think I tend to fall in this camp. I get annoyed with fuzzy thinking optimists who ignore details and just focus on what they want. (I was thinking of liberal social science types when I wrote this; but I realized the description is apt for Iraq War enthusiasts as well.)

We can’t ignore reality. You have to know where you are to get where you want to go. And, you have to know what’s possible. Obama strikes me as the kind of guy who can a) see the facts on the ground; b) see a desirable goal; and c) have an idea of how to get from point A to point B.

We’ll see if he gets a chance to demonstrate whether or not my perception is accurate.

Matthew Duss at The American Prospect has created a play entitled The Legend of Straighttalk McSurge illustrating the wisdom of John McCain with respect to the Iraq War:

EXT. George W. Bush, Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, and John McCain stand around a broken down car with smoke billowing from under the hood on Highway 40 near Dinosaur, Colorado. Cheney sneers into the distance. Rumsfeld is stabbing at the car with his finger. Bush reads a comic book.

MCCAIN: Gentlemen, this car has broken down. In order to achieve our goal of getting to Boston, the car will need a new engine. Also, we’ll need to lose some dead weight. Rumsfeld, looks like you’re walking.

RUMSFELD: What?

MCCAIN: Listen, I know we all agreed that the best way to get from DC to Boston was over the Rocky Mountains, but the fact is you were doing the driving, and I criticized you for it. You all heard me.

RUMSFELD: That’s bogus, man.

CHENEY: You’d better not write a freaking book, Don.

BUSH: Heh, how does Iron Man go to the bathroom?

(Rumsfeld shrugs and walks a few steps to a waiting corporate limo, which whisks him away.)

MCCAIN: Here come some mechanics to put a new engine in the car.

(Later)

MCCAIN: There, the car has a new engine. Gentlemen, the strategy has succeeded!

MEDIA: (rolling up in a VW bus): But the new engine was only part of the plan. You’re nowhere near Boston. In fact, the car seems to be rolling in the opposite direction …

CHENEY: Why do you hate this car so much, Saddamalqaeda?

MEDIA: What? But–

MCCAIN: I repeat, the installation of the new engine was successful. And I supported it. You all heard me. Make me your leader.

MEDIA: Well, it is true, he did support putting a new engine in. And the straightness of his talk is straight, indeed. You know, if you squint your eyes and tilt your head just so, these barren foothills do start to look kind of like Boston.

MCCAIN: Right! Now who wants to watch a game with me at Fenway Canyon?

fin

–Matthew Duss

Say your prayers and eat your vitamins, brother!

Well, darn. John Edwards is dropping out of the Presidential race. I can’t say I’m surprised, but it’s at least a little unfortunate. At the very least, he was pounding the drum about the economic situation of the middle class. That forced Obama and Clinton to pay attention to such issues. We will see if Edwards’ departure allows their attention to wander.

Senators Clinton and Obama will now be keen to win an endorsement from Edwards, yet he is playing his cards close to his chest. The former North Carolina senator will not immediately endorse either candidate, said one adviser, who spoke on a condition of anonymity in advance of the announcement.

As I’ve said frequently, I liked John well enough. But, watching the political shows, I’m sure I’m not the only one to see his wife Elizabeth and think, “Hmm, maybe she should be the one running for President.”

Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo did a survey of media reports concerning Hillary Clinton and the Florida primary. His conclusion is that she did not get the kind of spin she wanted or expected out of the process. Most news outlets went with the pretty straightforward explanation that she won a primary with no delegates at stake. Consequently, the stories are not displayed as prominently.

Dana Milbank had one that has to hurt a little: “Much Ado About No Delegates: The only piece missing from Sen. Hillary Clinton’s Florida victory party Tuesday night was a victory.”

Time may tell if what she got out of Florida was worth it in light of the perception (by me, at least; and I suspect many others) that she acted dishonorably. Maybe my perception is colored by my profession. As a lawyer, I fight with other lawyers — sometimes tooth and nail. We all fight to win. But with most of us, if you agree to something, you can pretty much count on the other side to stick to the spirit of the agreement — even if, perhaps, you haven’t nailed down every subclause of the agreement. You act in good faith. Word gets around when a lawyer is one who doesn’t act in good faith. A lawyer with that kind of reputation is going to find it awfully hard to operate in the future.