Computer problems are giving me problems linking directly to the document. But if you go to the USDOT Time Zone docket and look at the October 27, 2005 submissions, you’ll find a submission from Dr. David Avery, Professor at the University of Washington School of Medicine. He writes:

About 10 to 20% of the people in northern latitudes in the US have either SAD or subsyndromal SAD. It is well known that the prevalence of these disorders increase with latitude. Recently, we found that those living on the western edge of Eastern Time Zone are significantly more likely to have SAD symptoms than those living on the eastern edge of the time zone. The best explanation of this finding is that the sun is rising much later on the western edge of the time zone compared to the eastern edge and those on the western edge are getting less morning light.

As I understand it, Seasonal Affective Disorder is essentially depression caused by lack of sunlight. Dr. Avery’s letter states that morning sunlight seems to be more effective at diminishing this sort of depression that sunlight during other times of the day. During part of the year, a person waking up at 6:00 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time will be getting up 2.5 hours before sunrise at 8:30 a.m.

The Indy Star has published an editorial entitled There’s no time for clock confusion. The Star says that clearing up Indiana clock confusion was the main premise behind adopting Daylight Saving Time. Nevermind that it was a pretext with nothing but anectdotal evidence supporting the claim that adopting DST would do anything to improve the economy or give any unemployed Hoosier a new job. The Star says that putting as much of Indiana as possible on the same time should remain a goal. I agree. Put the whole state on Central Time, and we have a deal. The Star doesn’t explicitly state a preference, but I get the idea they have Eastern Time in mind. But let me just reiterate, the whole State has never been on Eastern Time. The whole State has been on central time. And, prior to adopting of DST, the whole state was functionally on Central Daylight Time for 7 months out of the year except for those renegade counties around Cincinnati that were observing Eastern Daylight Time illegally.

May Beth Schneider also has an article in the Star entitled, Time Zone Plan to be a Hard Sell. It focuses on the split between St. Joseph County and Elkhart Counties. The story has a comment by Elkhart mayor, David Miller, that seems to suggest that in terms of influence, Elkhart is the dog and St. Joseph County is the tail. Perhaps my reading comprehension is flawed or Mayor Miller’s local pride got the better of him, but that’s clearly ridiculous. Basically, he is saying that, while he wants Elkhart and South Bend to be on the same time, he isn’t sure he wants Elkhart County to go Central because that would be the tail wagging the dog. Meanwhile, Logansport Mayor expresses a sense of defeatism. He thinks the local attitude is that the residents of Logansport don’t have much of a say in the matter, so why bother with upcoming hearings. As for other parts of the state, Rep. Crooks and Rep. Grubb pretty well sum it up:

Rep. David Crooks, the Washington Democrat who had led the fight against daylight-saving time in the legislature, said his Daviess County neighbors are upset. The county wanted to move to Central time to make daylight-saving time more palatable. With the time zone change, the county would have been aligned with Vanderburgh and other southwestern Indiana counties year-round.
The Transportation Department didn’t buy Daviess County’s request but did recommend that the county’s neighbors — Knox and Pike counties — move to Central time.
“People think its just ridiculous. Almost laughable,” Crooks said.
He will try to get the Republican majority in the House to revisit the issue and pass a statewide referendum letting voters say whether the state should be in the Central or Eastern time zone.
Rep. F. Dale Grubb, D-Covington, said turning back the clock on the time zone debate will be next to impossible next year. “The bottom line is, it’s going to be screwed up no matter what happens.”

Google revealed a column by Rod Rose of the Lebanon (Ind) Reporter in the Cushing (Oklahoma) Daily Citizen, the jist of which is summed up in these paragraphs:

before someone wound Daniels’ clock, we’d always known what time it was — Indiana is officially on Eastern time, except for five counties near Evansville and five near Chicago, where Central time is observed. What time is it in Indiana? Why, in 82 counties, it’s Eastern Standard Time, 12 months a year.

That was apparently too complicated for Daniels and others who decided that what wasn’t broken needed to be wound tighter.

The DOT recommendations only expand the wackiness.

. . .

There’s only one solution for this: A referendum. Hoosiers should be given the option, next November, of a straight-up choice between Eastern and Central time for the entire state, and whether to observe daylight-saving time in that zone.

The Lafayette Journal & Courier has an editorial scolding the State and the Feds from their handling to date. The State dodged the question. The Feds threw it down to the counties. The result was a crazy quilt. But the J&C seems satisfied so long as White, Carroll, and Cass counties are forced to stay with Lafayette and Lafayette stays with Indianapolis. Hoosiers, the J&C says, will get used to the time no matter what it is. Very democratic of them.

Reading this WNDU time zone story, I came across what seems to be Governor Daniels’ latest:

Governor Mitch Daniels says the split between St. Joseph and Elkhart counties is simply “un-workable”.

“There’ll be changes as the DOT made clear. I’ve singled out a couple of them,” said Daniels. “Clearly, the evidence will show you don’t run a line between St. Joseph and Elkhart Counties. But in general, now we have a map for Indiana that’s much simpler than before, two time zones, not three, (which will hopefully be) an end to confusion.”

First, with respect to Daniels’ opining that an Elkhart/St. Joseph split is “unworkable”. He may be right, but what happened to his assertion that for the state to intervene in County time zone considerations would be “presumptuous”? Clearly, this Governor has never shown an aversion to presumption in the past. A skeptic might conclude that it was done out of convenience once he realized how badly he’d screwed up by opening the Pandora’s Box of Indiana Time.

Second, the “two time zones, not three” is nonsense. If his mission had really been to simplify Indiana time and he considered two time zones a success, he would have cracked down on the Cincinnati area counties who were observing Eastern Daylight Time illegally. That would have left us with Central Daylight Time and Eastern Standard Time. All of Indiana would have been on the same time for 7.5 months out of the year. So, hammering DST through the legislature followed by a county-by-county free-for-all over time zones is sure a Rube Goldberg approach to getting two time zones.

The USDOT has posted its Notice of Proposed Rule Making. The short version is:

DOT tentatively proposes to relocate the time zone boundary in Indiana to move St. Joseph, Starke, Knox, Pike, and Perry Counties from the eastern time zone to the central time 7one at the request of the County Commissioners. We are tentatively not proposing to change the time zone boundary to move Marshall, Pulaski, Fulton, Benton, White, Carroll, Cass, Vermillion, Sullivan, Daviess, Dubois, Martin, and Lawrence Counties from the eastern time zone to the central time zone based on the petitions from the commissioners in these counties. If additional information is provided that indicates that the time zone boundary should be drawn differently, either to include counties currently excluded or to exclude counties that are currently included in this proposal, we will make the change at the final rule stage of this proceeding.

So, two from the northwest and three from the southwest. The biggest fish is, of course, St. Joseph County. It seems odd they wouldn’t include Marshall County.

County Commissioners who have submitted petitions and want to provide additional data until November 10, 2005. Other comments should be received within 30 days of publication (by November 24 I suppose.) The earliest effective date of any time zone change would be April 2, 2006.

“An opportunity for oral comments will be provided at four public hearings in Jasper, Logansport, South Bend, and Terre Haute.”

The notice emphasizes the preliminary nature of the proposed rule and, in particular, stresses that neither counties for which a time change is proposed nor counties for which a time change is not proposed should regard the matter as resolved. “If supplementary information is filed by the County Commissioners supporting the inclusion of additional counties and it is not otherwise refuted, an
appropriate change will be made in the final rule.”

To aid us in our consideration of whether a time zone change would be “for the convenience of commerce,” we ask for comments on the impact on commerce of a change in time zone and whether a new time zone would improve the convenience of commerce. The comments should address the impact on such things as economic, cultural, social, and civic activities and how time zone changes affect businesses, communication, transportation, and education.

. . .

We specifically invite comment from neighboring Indiana counties, and counties in Michigan, Kentucky, Ohio, and Illinois that may also be impacted by any change. For example, we are aware of the importance of South Bend to its neighboring conimunities in Indiana and Michigan and specifically request comment on potential effects to those communities to the north, east, and south if St. Joseph County is changed at the final rule stage and placed in a different time zone from the greater Michiana area as additional information could change our tentative decision.

Updated 5:20 p.m. EST to include information from the NPRM after I had had a chance to read it.

Update #2 An AP Story has some comments from Governor Daniels and Representative Bauer. After noting Gov. Daniels’ Sept. 30 prediction that everyone who requested Central would get Central, the article states:

“Clearly there will be changes in this proposed rule before the process is complete,” he said. “Some counties that failed on the first try will, I believe, ultimately make a credible case to move to the Central time zone. And it’s obviously unworkable to divide St. Joseph and Elkhart counties, which form one, economic, social and cultural region.”

Unlike St. Joseph County, neighboring Elkhart County in northern Indiana did not seek a switch to Central time.

Democratic House Minority Leader Patrick Bauer, whose hometown of South Bend is in St. Joseph County, agreed that having the two counties on different times would create an odd situation.

Bauer, who opposed statewide daylight-saving time, also suggested that zone changes in general would create more confusion about time in Indiana.

“This whole adventure in time has been bizarre,” he said.

I’ve also created a new map based on the NPRM. The solid red counties are the ones the USDOT proposes to place in Central. The pale red counties are those who requested a change but have been preliminarily denied. The yellow counties are those that submitted a petition but reconsidered and backed out of their requests.

Update 3 Mary Beth Schneider has an article in the Indy Star. South Bend mayor Stephen Leucke said he is pleased South Bend is in the running, but criticized the process saying it pitted county against county. Similiarly Dennis Estok, the mayor of Knox, Indiana in Starke County was happy to be on the Central side of the preliminary notice, but was concerned that neighboring Pulaski and Marshall counties had been excluded. House Minority Leader Pat Bauer described the situation as simply “screwed up”.

Jennifer Whitson also has an article for the Evansville Courier Press. A Dubois County commissioner said they were done with the topic, meaning the county will not try to supplement its petition to get Central Time. Perry County Commissioner Terry Lock had been under the impression that each county would get an individual hearing. And, Rep. Dave Crooks called the situation a “complete mess.”

“I don’t want Pike and Knox on Central and the rest of my area on Eastern,” Crooks said. “This is just making matters worse. If we can’t unify the region, then just leave it alone.”

The Elkhart Truth has a story entitled Central Time proposed for St. Joe County notes the USDOT action as well as Elkhart County’s position that they would prefer Eastern time but they would also prefer to remain with St. Joseph County. I think their priority is staying with St. Joseph County, but it is not entirely clear which they want more.

Update 4 The South Bend Tribune has its story up. In particular, there appears to be a lot of surprise that Marshall County did not get a hearing. Additionally, a lot of sentiment that Marshall, St. Joseph, and Elkhart counties should be in the same time zone.

In the comments, Paul O’Malley brings up a good point. Only one of the four hearings is set to be held in a county, South Bend in St. Joseph County, where the USDOT proposes to change time zones. The others, Logansport, Terre Haute, and Jasper are outside of the proposed areas. Logansport in Cass County and Jasper in Dubois County are at least in counties that requested a change but were preliminarily denied. But Terre Haute is in Vigo County which did not even request a change.

Thanks to Jim Bognar for the catch. The Benton County Commissioners made yet another submission to the US Dept. of Transportation. This time they are asking to withdraw their request for central time. By my count, that’s the fourth position they’ve submitted to the USDOT. First they requested central time. Second, they decided they hadn’t properly voted on the request and asked that the request be withdraw. Third, they voted for Central Time and made their submission. And now, fourth, they have asked to withdraw their request. I’m tired of redrawing the map, so I’m leaving it as it is.

Richmond radio station, WFMG has a poll on preferences for Eastern Time v. Central Time. Currently leaning Central by a vote of 7 to 4.

Bill Starr has a good column on time zones in the Evansville Courier Press. He endeavours to explain to eastern time zone advocates why eastern time sounds so extreme to central time zone proponents.

I think most people would agree that the thought of putting Buffalo, N.Y., on Central time sounds pretty outlandish. Buffalo is 11.1 degrees (565 miles) east of the middle of the Central Standard Time zone (which runs approximately through Peoria, Ill.). The sun rises and sets in Buffalo about 45 minutes before it sets at the middle of the Central time zone, but only 15 minutes later than at the middle of the Eastern zone.

Indianapolis is in almost the reverse situation. It lies 11.1 degrees (590 miles) west of the middle of the Eastern Standard Time zone (which runs approximately through Philadelphia). The sun rises and sets in Indianapolis about 45 minutes later than at the middle of the Eastern time zone, but only 15 minutes earlier than in the middle of the Central zone.

So, for Central advocates like me, Indiana observing Central time looks about as sensible as leaving Buffalo on Eastern time. And, conversely, leaving Indiana on Eastern looks about as ludicrous as moving Buffalo to the Central zone. Indianapolis lies about as far from the center of the Eastern zone as Buffalo is from the center of the Central zone.

He also mentions how much longer we’ll have to wait under Eastern Daylight Time for the sun to begin rising earlier than 6:30 a.m. which is an inconvenience for those who prefer to get an earlier start on the day.

Famed sports statistician and sometime reader, Jeff Sagarin, got a write up on the front page of the Wall Street Journal on the topic of Indiana’s time zones.

Mr. Sagarin’s views have been mentioned here before, and the Wall Street Journal article basically recaps them. I did notice one thing the article got wrong before it got it right. The fourth paragraph of the article says, “Indiana’s legislators created a confusing new wrinkle: it was left to individual counties to decide what time zone to be in, Central or Eastern.” This is, as they say, counterfactual. The legislator told the Governor to submit whatever was necessary to obtain hearings on the matter. He failed to do so in that he did not submit a bit of “convenience of commerce” documentation as required by the USDOT when he made his request. Later in the article, the WSJ gets it right by stating that it was the USDOT that told counties to apply on an individual basis.

Critical as I have been of the Governor on this subject, he gets in a pretty good quote, “In an interview, Gov. Daniels says he thinks Mr. Sagarin ‘makes a good point.’ But, he adds, ‘Someone once dsaid to me it’s the only topic where five people can hold different viewpoints and all end their arguments with, ‘You see, it’s a no-brainer.'”

Update Thanks to Jim for finding a link to the content of the Wall Street Journal article. The link is to the Post-Gazette which reprinted the WSJ article. I’ve edited the entry accordingly.

Paul Musgrave has a post that focuses on local decision making processes and the decision on whether or not a county should request central time. The post focuses more on the theoretical model of decision making local officials would be expected to follow than on the issue of which time zone was more appropriate in a given situation. Worth a read.

The Journal & Courier is reporting that the Benton Community School Corporation has indicated a preference to “stay with Lafayette”. The Benton County Commissioners voted 2 to 1 to petition for Central Time based on public input supporting Central Time by a margin of about 4 to 1. When you boil this down, I think it really amounts to an overall preference by residents of Benton County that Tippecanoe County also be on Central Time.