Via Blue Indiana – The Swing State Project has added IN-03 (Souder v. Montagano) and IN-04 (Buyer v. Ackerson) to its “to watch” list. In both districts, the incumbent has to be regarded as the heavy favorite, but a combination of solid candidates, decent fund raising, lackluster incumbents, and disillusionment over the past seven years could conceivably flip these districts.
Cook Political Report: Ackerson and Montagano still longshots
Maureen Groppe, writing for the Indianapolis Star, puts some numbers to a subject I was talking about a few days ago – the chances for Democrats to pick up more seats in Indiana in light of the Democratic victory in a blood red district in Mississippi. The Mississippi district went to Bush in 2004 with 62% of the vote. By contrast IN-04 where Nels Ackerson seeks to unseat Steve Buyer went to Bush with 69% of the vote and IN-03 where Mike Montagano seeks to unseat Mark Souder went to Bush with 68% of the vote.
So, as the article points out, it would be tougher for the Democrats to pick up those seats than the one in Mississippi. It does bear mentioning, however, that the Mississippi district went to the Democrat by 8%. Souder and Buyer have built in advantages, but the Republicans have a lot of baggage, particularly with respect to national offices, and their competitors this year are mounting realistic challenges. These races might draw close enough for the difference to come down to the candidates themselves and their positions; rather than simply an unthinking preference for either the Republican team or the Democratic team. That could be trouble for the incumbents because my sense is that, even among devoted Republicans, Buyer and Souder aren’t exactly beloved, known for constituent outreach, or respected for their accomplishments while in office.
Groppe notes the new House Republican slogan “Change You Deserve” and the fact that it’s already an antidepressant drug slogan. For me, it’s the potentially ominous sarcasm that makes the slogan funny. What if these guys don’t think we deserve much change? Or what if they think we deserve negative change? To me it sounds a lot like “You’ve got what’s coming to you.”
Ackerson lays into Buyer proposal
Steve Buyer, apparently noticing increased gas prices, has introduced the Buzzword Buzzword Act of 2008 . . . err, “the Main Street USA Energy Security Act of 2008.” When I was drafting legislation, we used to joke that the most important thing was to have a good title for your bill. Since then, it seems like the worst bills have some of the best names. Buyer’s has some great buzzwords –
Main Street: “Hey! I have a main street close to *my* house!”
USA: (chanting) “USA! USA! USA!”
Energy Security: “These are scary times, I like security. And energy seems important just about now.”
What’s not to like? I’ll vote for it! Oh, wait, I have no idea what it does yet. According to Buyer as quoted in the article, it seeks to allow drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and to shift reliance to nuclear power plants and coal. The text is here. In addition, it apparently seeks to expedite the process for building refineries, including designating 3 closed military bases as suitable for refining. I don’t have any kind of familiarity with existing energy law, so I’m not qualified to say how Buyer’s law would change existing law. From reading the text of the bill, I see about $1/2 billion for nuclear development and a number of tax credits for energy producers, including nuclear, coal liquification, and, apparently, non-dammed, free-flowing hydro. There are some amendments to the tax credits for home owners using solar, wind, or geothermal.
Nels Ackerson, Buyer’s opponent in the 2008 race, offers a blistering assessment:
“The incumbent congressman’s energy bill is too little, too late, too narrow in scope, and too politically motivated to have any effect on gas prices,†Ackerson contended. “Let’s be honest, this is a weak bill put forward at the last minute in an election year. Its current co-sponsors are all members of his political party, and it has no chance of being passed.
“Hoosiers are being hit hard with gas prices passing the $4 mark. Providing relief and reducing our dependence on foreign oil are too important for political gimmicks. They deserve serious, comprehensive energy proposals.â€
. . .
Ackerson, though not opposed to drilling where oil can be recovered in an environmentally sound manner, does not believe a focus on increasing oil production is the answer.“We need complete solutions, including wind, bio-fuels, solar, safe nuclear and clean coal technologies, as well as conservation,†he explained.
Ackerson said he looks forward to debating Buyer on the proposed energy policy and other issues during the next few months.
Congressional Matchups
The Lafayette Journal & Courier had an article a few days ago primarily focused on the upcoming match up in the 4th Congressional District between 8 term incumbent, Steve Buyer and Westfield attorney Nels Ackerson. Ackerson sports an impressive resume and the ability to raise money that might give Buyer his first serious challenge; though it’ll be tough sledding in the heavily Republican Fourth District.
Other races in Indiana will be:
IN-01: Pete Visclosky versus Mark Leyva. Hard to think Visclosky is vulnerable.
IN-02: Joe Donnelly versus Luke Puckett. I think Tony Zirkle got like 5,000 votes.
IN-03: Mark “term limits” Souder versus Mike Montagano.
IN-05: Dan Burton v. Mary Etta Ruley.
IN-06: Mike Pence v. Barry Welsh.
IN-07: Andre Carson v. John Elrod.
IN-08: Brad Ellsworth v. Greg Goode.
IN-09: Baron Hill v. Mike Sodrel. The re-re-re-match. It’s like Groundhog’s Day down there.
Indiana (and North Carolina) Primary Day: VOTE!
It’s primary day in Indiana and North Carolina. Whatever your preference*, get out and vote. It’s good to get in the habit. Here in Lafayette, turn out seemed strong. Until today, I had never waited in line to vote in an Indiana primary. I waited for 3 or 4 minutes at 6:45 a.m. this morning.
*When I typed that, I recalled Mike Kole, Libertarian, and his practice of going to the polling place, signing the book, and leaving because the primary is stacked in favor of just Republicans and Democrats. That made me think of the Blues Brothers scene:
Elwood: What kind of music do you usually have here?
Claire: Oh, we got both kinds. We got country *and* western.
I suppose primaries are kind of like that for any third party.
My footnote kind of ate up the initial post here. Still, get out and vote.
Update
The Lafayette Journal & Courier is doing an election day notebook. As of about 2:45 p.m., about 30,000 people had voted in Tippecanoe County’s primary. I don’t know what the record is/was for the county, but according to the J&C, 1996 had about 22,500 and that was the highest primary turnout from then to now.
IN-04: McCain Ballot Challenge
Thomas at Blue Indiana says that John McCain has failed to obtain the necessary signatures to appear on the ballot in Indiana’s 4th Congressional District. Accordingly, he has filed a challenge.
For those of you who have been following the site over the last few days, you are probably well aware that I have been covering the gubernatorial signature battle, as both of our candidates sought to get their 500 signatures in each congressional district, and thus earn a place on the statewide ballot for the May primary. As part of that process, I’ve been requesting daily updates from the Indiana Election Division, which keeps a rolling tally of the number of signatures that each candidate has collected.
Now, I’m originally from the 4th District, so curiosity led me to check out who had made it (and by how much) in my old stomping ground. To my surprise, I noticed that John McCain — the presumptive front-runner for the GOP nomination — was just a little short in a few districts, including my precious 4th, despite the fact that Attorney General Steve Carter had already turned in their petitions. I made a few phone calls, and one by one I found out that the McCain camp had got the job done across the state.
Except in the 4th District.
In the 4th District, they are short.
By my latest count, they turned in 496 signatures for the 4th, and the latest IED report for this morning shows them with only 491.
So this afternoon, I filed a challenge with the Secretary of State’s office to keep John McCain off of the ballot. You can check it out here. (I’ll have a .pdf version up when I get back to Bloomington this evening.)
Let’s be clear here: This is one of the most Republican-friendly districts in one of the most Republican-friendly presidential states. John McCain has been endorsed by Governor Mitch Daniels, Attorney General Steve Carter, state GOP chair Murray Clark, and Secretary of State Todd Rokita.
And despite all of this high-level help, these guys managed to screw up one of the most basic steps that any candidate can take in the state.
Probe of NRCC involves former Buyer campaign treasurer
A potential national political scandal is brewing that might have an Indiana angle.
Top House Republicans were told in recent days that a former employee of their campaign committee may have forged an official audit during the contentious 2006 election cycle and that they should brace for the possibility that an unfolding investigation could uncover financial improprieties stretching back several years, according to GOP sources briefed on the members-only discussions.
. . .
The precise details of the suspected accounting irregularities and their possible fallout are not entirely clear. NRCC officials and top GOP leaders are being tight-lipped in large part because the FBI is investigating the matter. An outside lawyer advising members and staff has warned everyone at the committee to keep quiet.
. . .
The NRCC internal investigation centers on Christopher J. Ward, a former NRCC treasurer who worked at the committee until mid-August of last year, according to those briefed on the matter. From that time until late December, Ward was an outside contractor for the NRCC, according to Federal Election Commission records.
The FBI, which was informed about the matter last week, did not respond to calls for comment.
As treasurer, Ward was in charge of NRCC bookkeeping, tracking tens of millions of dollars in political contributions and expenditures. He has been at the center of NRCC bookkeeping for more than a decade.
. . .
Over the years, Ward has also served as the official treasurer for numerous congressional Republicans, their PACs and other GOP candidates running for Congress.
They include retiring Reps. Jim Saxton of New Jersey, James T. Walsh of New York and Jerry Weller of Illinois, as well as Reps. Steve Buyer of Indiana, Phil English of Pennsylvania and Bob Goodlatte of Virginia, among many others.
He was also listed as the treasurer for incarcerated former Ohio Rep. Bob Ney’s American Liberty PAC.
The Buyer connection is pretty incidental at the moment, but something to keep an eye on. The Bob Ney connection really caught my eye though. Ney was the GOP bigwig brought down by the fine reporting of the Toledo Blade in the Ohio Coingate scandal. Ohio’s Dept. of Labor was apparently investing worker’s compensation money in Ney’s rare coin business. On top of the the eyebrow raising nature of the investment, Ney was apparently misappropriating the money.
Indiana Democrats and Sen. Lugar are bipartisan sometimes
Maureen Groppe has an article in the Louisville Courier Journal entitled “Congress’ Hoosiers Showed Independence in ’07.” But that headline is not entirely accurate. Indiana’s House Republicans — Pence, Burton, Buyer, and Souder — were not notable for their bipartisan efforts.
On the other hand, Bayh, Hill, Donnelly, Ellsworth, and Lugar were noted for crossing party lines from time to time. No word on Carson or Visclosky, though Carson didn’t do much in the way of voting last year and Visclosky presumably voted Democratic like his counterparts Pency, Burton, Buyer, and Souder.
The article mentions that Bayh broke with his party to allow the government to conduct warrantless surveillance in the United States, and to vote against a requirement that utilities get some of their power from renewable resources. Hill, Donnelly, and Ellsworth also voted for warrantless government wiretaps and against children’s health care. Good going, guys.
IN-04: Ackerson – Failure of SCHIP is a blow to bipartisanship
Nels Ackerson, candidate for Indiana’s 4th Congressional District, has an opinion column in the Martinsville Reporter-Times pointing out that the failure to override Bush’s veto of the Children’s Health Program is a defeat for bipartisanship and a blow to families and children.
This issue will probably be important to Mr. Ackerson on a number of levels. First, he knows he will be representing a conservative district and, as such, wants to build consensus between Republican views and Democratic views. At this point, I’ll make a brief aside. Two of my best friends are die-hard, Republican conservatives. I know I sound like the guy who tries to prove he’s not racist by saying that some of his best friends are black. But, no. I mean these guys are in the inner-circle, 2 of maybe 4 really good friends. Anyway, back in 2003, we were in Denver drinking at a Rockies game. Then, we were out and about in downtown Denver continuing the drunkfest. The topic turned to politics. It got ugly. (Wait, how did Nels Ackerson get dragged into one of my drinking stories?) We were yelling and generally getting pissed off at each other talking about Republicans, fascists, and theocrats this; Democrats, Ted Kennedy, communists that. But a funny thing happened when we sobered up. Not wanting to poison the relationship, when talking politics with these guys, I took to talking more about specific problems and specific ideas for solutions rather than throwing around labels. We don’t always agree about everything, but we agree about far more than we disagree about. And where we disagree the acrimony is at a minimum.
We have a similar thing with SCHIP. As Mr. Ackerson points out, this was a program that was approved by two thirds of the Senate, nearly two thirds of the House, 43 governors and almost three fourths of the American people. This was not a divisive bill. Most people agreed that it was a pretty good policy. But, because Bush and a relative handful of his supporters in the House — Ackerson’s opponent Steve Buyer among them — dug in their heels to oppose the program, this relatively agreeable policy is going to turn into a political hate-fest. Democrats will now try to tar all Republicans as hating children, and Republicans will try to brand Democrats as socialized-medicine loving, free market-hating communists.
In his column, Ackerson makes a few points about why the Children’s Healthcare Insurance Program is a good idea for Hoosier children: First, Indiana is near the tail end of the country in terms of per capita income growth over the past decade. Hoosier income has remained stagnant while health insurance premiums have been going up at double digit rates. Second:
The cruel irony is that huge federal deficits passed in the past six years have plunged us into an ocean of debt in which our children and grandchildren will have to swim or drown. The least we can do is to provide them with life jackets of adequate health care. Those who created the largest federal deficits in our nation’s history, and now call SCHIP supporters the big spenders, are neither fiscally conservative nor responsible. Their conduct in the midst of a health care crisis for their constituents is the equivalent of a food fight on the Titanic.
Opponents of this bill seem, by and large, o.k. with spending our childrens’ money, just so long as our children don’t actually benefit from the expenditure. On this issue, as so many others, Steve Buyer is AWOL, leaving his constituents to fend for themselves.
Blue Indiana – Fund raising Report
Blue Indiana has a handy-dandy chart with Indiana Congressional fund raising numbers. As I’ve mentioned before, Nels Ackerson in IN-04 has posted some solid numbers in his bid to unseat Steve Buyer. He raised $134,000 for the quarter. But, he still has a ways to go. Buyer raised only $73,000 for the quarter but has over $400,000 on hand. Another potentially interesting race is IN-03 where Mike Montagno has $147,000 on hand versus Mark Souder’s $145,000. (Sylvia Smith has an article on this money race in the Fort Wayne Journal Gazette.) Again, money isn’t everything, these candidates have to overcome demographics in those districts that have consisted of a good deal of Republican brand loyalty over the years. But, that brand has been undergoing New Coke-esque tarnishing over the past few years, and the Republicans haven’t yet shown that they have a willingness to return to Coke Classic. (Man, that was a strained metaphor, but it’s early, so I’m going with it.)