A Citizen's Guide to Indiana

Masson's Blog

2nd Place

by 2 Comments

Just thought I’d take a look at how the second place finishers did in the Congressional Race. Here they are in order of vote percentage:

#1 – Eric Dickerson (IN-07) – 46.41%
#2 – Chris Chocola (IN-02) – 45.9%
#3 – Tom Hayhurst (IN-03) – 45.7%
#4 – Mike Sodrel (IN-09) – 44.85%  (Libertarian Eric Schansberg took 5%   of the vote in this race.)
#5 – Barry Welsh (IN-06) – 39.8%
#6 – John Hostettler (IN-08) – 39.33%
#7 – David Sanders (IN-04) – 35.33%
#8 – Katherine Fox Carr (IN-05) – 32.89%
#9 – Mark Leyva (IN-01) – 26.85%

Source: Indiana Secretary of State vote totals as of 11/9/06.

Notable in that list are Eric Dickerson and Tom Hayhurst for putting up such tough fights as challengers without notable support from their respective parties. Also notable is incumbent John Hostettler for getting waxed by such a large margin despite an immense amount of support from his party.

IN-08: Ellsworth defeats Hostettler

by 3 Comments

Looks like John Hostettler used up his 9 lives already. It’s being projected that he will go down to defeat to Brad Ellsworth in the bloody eighth. I respected him for voting against the war in Iraq and generally voting his conscience. But Hostettler was far too radical with some of his views for my tastes. For example he characterized the Democrats as “demonizing and denigrating Christians.” He was against “divorce on demand.” In an effort to establish fully human life begins at conception, he proposed giving people a child tax credit if they had a miscarriage. And, he was in favor of defunding the U.S. Marshal’s Office in order to prevent them from enforcing judicial orders with which he disagreed.

I think Brad Ellsworth is conservative enough to represent the vast majority of people in the 8th District. But he’s not going to be a wingnut about it.

Sunday round-up

by 26 Comments

  • Niki Kelly, writing for the Fort Wayne Journal Gazette, has an article entitled Secretary of State race poised to make, break Daniels’ agenda. The article notes that, in the event of a 50/50 tie in the Secretary of State race, the winner determines who will control the chamber. I can’t remember how the provision is written — whether the Secretary of State casts the vote, or whether the party holding the Secretary’s office is the party that will control the House. If it’s the latter, things could get very interesting if Libertarian Mike Kole were to win. Obviously Libertarians have a tough road in any campaign, but Mr. Kole has probably put forth the most credible challenge in a statewide race of any Libertarian in recent memory. Meanwhile, the Journal Gazette’s editorial board endorses Democratic challenger Joe Pearson for the position.
  • The Indianapolis Star issues endorsements for the 9 Congressional Districts. IN-01: Pete Visclosky, incumbent; IN-02: Joe Donnelly, challenger; IN-03: Mark Souder; IN-04: Steve Buyer, incumbent; IN-05: Dan Burton, incumbent; IN-06: Mike Pence, incumbent; IN-07: Julia Carson; IN-08: Brad Ellsworth; IN-09: Mike Sodrel. For those keeping score, that’s an endorsement of 7 incumbents versus two challengers. So, let’s not hear any future wailing and moaning by the Star about how it’s gerrymandering that keeps incumbent retention at a ridiculously high rate. (Particularly galling in my quick read was this: “it’s Buyer’s work on veterans issues, along with his fiscal conservatism, that wins The Star’s endorsement.” Had the Star editorial board actually been following that race, they’d know that Buyer’s record on veteran’s issues is sketchy. If they’d been looking at the federal deficit while Buyer and friends have been in control, they’d know his fiscal conservatism is sketchy as well. But, I’m sure there are other gems in that string of endorsements that deserve my abuse as well.)
  • Thomas Langhorne, writing for the Evansville Courier Press has an article entitled Ellsworth widens lead in poll. An Indiana State University follow up poll commissioned by the Courier Press showed Ellsworth with 55% compared to Hostettler’s 32%. Langhorne also reports that 2/3 of likely voters supporting Ellsworth are motivated by a desire to see Democrats control the House or to see Hostettler defeated.
  • The Courier Press also has an editorial digging into the byzantine mechanics of Congressional pay raises and concludes that the waters are muddy but Hostettler had a chance to get at the pay raise for an up or down vote and declined the chance.
  • The Lafayette Journal and Courier has an editorial entitled “Democrats look to gain seats, control.” The paper does not take any particular position but describes the issues that have voters in a bad mood with respect to Republicans and have Democrats apparently in a better electoral position than they have been in years past.
  • Lesley Stedman Weidenbener has an article looking at attack mail flooding mailboxes in Indiana’s 9th District.
  • Steve Walsh, writing for the Gary Post Tribune has an article on Indiana’s Second Congressional District entitled “District election a dead heat.” I guess it’s true, the media wants a horse race, not a blow out. Because, the “dead heat” headline seems to come from the Chocola campaign’s statement that they had polls showing the race to be a dead heat, as opposed to a recent South Bend Tribune poll showing Donnelly to have a 10 point lead.

  • Speaking of horse races, Sylvia Smith has an opinion column entitled “A lot can happen before election day.” Democrats, she said, should not be too confident, and Republicans should not be too discouraged.

IN-08: Responding to Foleygate Hostettler points finger at 33 year old Democratic scandal

by 8 Comments

John Hostettler is one of the candidates who probably has the most to lose because of the revelations that Republican leadership did nothing for months and maybe even years when evidence surfaced that Florida Republican Mark Foley was attempting to seduce underage, male Congressional pages. This is because Hostettler, more than most Representatives, runs on a platform that the Republican Party is the morally superior party. If that claim is seen to be a bunch of hoakum, particularly by the conservative Christian right, Hostettler is in big trouble. His campaigns rely heavily on a huge percentage of the Christian right mobilizing and voting for him.

So, some desperation from Hostettler is to be expected. But, stretching for a 33 year old Democratic sex scandal is a bit of a reach. At this point, the scandal itself, let along the people involved, are well beyond the age of majority. According to the story in the Evansville Courier Press, Hostettler castigated Foley, the disgraced Representative who abruptly resigned on his own initiative after ABC News confronted him with lurid communications between Foley and Congressional pages. That was the easy part. Then Hostettler, rather than going on to castigate Republican leadership that sat on the information for months or years, instead brought up a sex scandal from 1973 when Democrat Gerry Studd had sex with a 17 year old Congressional page. Wow. What’s next? Teapot Dome?

IN-02, IN-09: Zogby Poll

by 1 Comment

Zogby has released poll results for several races across the country. Among these are IN-02 and IN-09:

IN-02:
Republican Rep. Chris Chocola, one of the party’s three endangered incumbents in normally Republican Indiana, aired an ad claiming Bush was not tough enough on immigration. “We just disagree,” he said. He faces a challenge from Democratic businessman Joe Donnelly.
Democrat 48.5%
Republican 39%
Not sure: 11%

IN-09:
In a rematch of a close 2004 race, Republican Rep. Mike Sodrel and Democratic former congressman Baron Hill have battled over hot-button social issues like abortion and gay marriage. Their southern Indiana district leans Republican.
Democrat 46%
Republican 38%
Not sure: 14%

The polls were taken the week of Sept. 25 to Oct. 2 in 15 of the most competitive House districts across the country, including three days the sex scandal involving Florida Rep. Mark Foley’s explicit Internet messages to teenage male congressional pages. It bears mentioning that those three days were Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, so I would guess that the poll doesn’t reflect the full brunt of the Foley scandal. The finger pointing over who knew what and when, and the conservative calls for Speaker Hastert’s resignation didn’t really get cooking until the beginning of the week.

Not included in the polling were several Republican-held districts where Democrats are favored, including that of Foley, who has resigned from the House, former Rep. Tom DeLay’s Texas district, Indiana Rep. John Hostettler’s district and the Pennsylvania seat of Rep. Don Sherwood, who suffered his own sex scandal last year.

IN-08: More information on ISU poll

by 1 Comment

Jim Beck, writing for the Evansville Courier Press did a follow up on the poll showing Ellsworth leading Hostettler by 15%. The poll was questioned by many because of the huge gender discrepancy: 63.5% women and 36.5% men. However, the follow up reveals that gender was not a significant factor in which candidate was preferred. In fact, the men were slightly more likely to favor Ellsworth: 48.2% versus 47.1% of women. By contrast, Hostettler was polling at something like 32%.

IN-08: Ellsworth leads by 15 points in recent poll

by 4 Comments

According to a recent poll commissioned by the Evansville Courier Press, John Hostettler trails challenger Brad Ellsworth by 15%. More surprising than the margin is the low, low support Hostettler apparently has — The poll showed Ellsworth with 47.4% support — decent, but not a huge number. However, the poll showed Hostettler with 31.8%. This is among respondents who were comprised of 32.7% Republicans, 33.5% Democrats, and the remainder unaffiliated with either major party.

This poll smells like an outlier merely because of the huge margin and large percentage of undecideds. Guess we’ll wait and see.

IN-08: Washington Post blog entry

by 1 Comment

Jim VandeHei has a blog post on the Washington Post blog entitled “Unorthodox Campaigner May Be In Trouble.” He mentions a WISH-TV poll showing Ellsworth leading 44 to 40, noting it’s always news when an incumbent who has been in office 12 years is that far below 50% this late in an election cycle. Hostettler’s sister & spokeswoman said that seemed reasonable and fair.

[A new poll] conducted by the Garin Hart Yang Research Group — shows Ellsworth leading 51-34, based on the views of 401 likely voters. The poll was conducted Sept. 18 and 19. That same polling firm found Ellsworth up by four points in June.

However, Hostettler’s vaunted get out the vote capabilities in District churches is expected to keep him in the race. Vanderhei suggests that “Hostettler’s biggest problem might be the unpopularity of the GOP in Indiana, where Gov. Mitch Daniels has ticked off a good chunk of the state by privatizing toll roads and other unpopular moves.”

I will be genuinely tickled if Gov. Daniels’ tin ear and ham-fisted governing style in Indianapolis, particularly with respect to Daylight Saving Time, brings gridlock to DC.