Here is my roundup of the landscape of Indiana’s Congressional Races based in large part from the election results here. I’m fully aware that I’m not necessarily an authoritative source in these matters, so I’d love to hear any opinions about the races in November.

IN-01: In a 4-way race, Mark Leyva defeated his Republican opponents for the chance to take on Democratic incumbent Pete Visclosky. This is a pretty safe Democratic seat.

IN-02: Democrat Joe Donnelly beat out his opponent for the opportunity for a rematch against incumbent Chris Chocola. For what it’s worth, more Democrats took out ballots in this district than did Republicans, by a margin of about 36,000 Dems to 35,000 Republicans. While not exactly a squeaker, it’s notable that Chocola only got 70% of the Republican vote against his challenger Tony Zirkle who really got beat up in the press for some of his nuttier ideas (for example: drafting deadbeat dads to go guard the border against illegal immigrants.) Donnelly has a very credible shot at taking down Chocola.

IN-03: Dr. Tom Hayhurst won the Democratic primary with 66% of the vote against 3 opponents. He will take on incumbent Mark Souder. While Hayhurst is a more credible opponent than Souder has faced in the past, in that he has political experience as a Fort Wayne politician and he has actually raised a fair amount of money, the District is heavily Republican. About 19,000 Democratic ballots were cast in that district versus about 55,000 Republican ballots.

IN-04: David Sanders beat out three opponents in the Democratic primary for the opportunity to take on incumbent Steve Buyer.  This is another heavily Republican district with about 18,000 Democratic ballots having been cast versus about 69,000 Republican ballots. The breakdown may not be quite as skewed as the numbers suggest since in the 4th Congressional District there  were a lot more interesting Republican primary races than Democratic ones, meaning that a number of people who might vote Democrat in the fall may have taken a Republican ballot in the primary. Still, it’s a heavily Republican district.

IN-05: Kathleen Carr beat out 3 opponents for the opportunity to be the sacrificial lamb to Dan Burton. This is probably the least competitive district in the state.

IN-06: Democrat Barry Welsh took 69% of the vote to beat his opponent and he will take on Mike Pence. Barry will have an uphill battle as the 6th District had about 33,000 Democratic ballots cast versus about 58,000 Republican ballots. However, I’ve been very impressed with Mr. Welsh’s online activity. Maybe he can get some extra traction through that avenue.  

IN-07: Incumbent Julia Carson cruised to victory with 80% of the vote in a 4-way race. She will take on Republican challenger Eric Dickerson (not the running back) who managed a 50% victory in a 4-way Republican primary race despite being opposed by the local Republican establishment. The establishment candidate garnered only 21% of the vote. This is a strongly Democratic district, and Rep. Carson is likely to keep her seat.

IN-08: There were no primary challenges in this district. Democratic Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth will be challenging wingnut John Hostettler. Hostettler looks perennially vulnerable but he always manages to pull out a victory. Ellsworth is a good candidate and has a better shot than his predecessors, but Hostettler’s 9-lives caution against counting on a victory. That being said, I would say this is the Democrats 2nd best shot at taking a seat in Indiana.

IN-09: Democrat Baron Hill won the right to a rubber match against his nemesis Mike Sodrel. Hill beat Sodrel once, then lost to him in 2004. 2006 will be the rubber match between the two. I’d rate this is as the Democrats best shot at taking a seat in Indiana. Hill has won the district before, and the Democrats have a strong presence in the District. In fact, there were about 60,000 Democratic voters versus about 31,000 Republican primary voters.

So, I’d rate the districts as follows:

IN-01: Probable Democratic hold by Pete Visclosky.

IN-07: Probable Democratic hold by Julia Carson.

IN-09: Good shot at Democratic pickup by Baron Hill over Mike Sodrel.

IN-08: Good shot at Democratic pickup by Brad Ellsworth over John Hostettler.

IN-02: Reasonable shot at Democratic pickup by Joe Donnelly over Chris Chocola.

IN-03: Long shot at Democratic pickup by Tom Hayhurst over Mark Souder.

IN-06: Long shot at Democratic pickup by Barry Welsh over Mike Pence.

IN-04: Very, very long shot at Democratic pickup by David Sanders over Steve Buyer.

IN-05: Kathleen Carr will be on the ballot against Dan Burton.

The theocratic wing of Indiana’s Senate Republicans intends to either fill the Senate Presidency with one of their own or demand obedience of the person who fills the post left vacant by Sen. Garton’s ouster. Mary Beth Schneider and Michele McNeil have an article in the Indianapolis Star about the political maneuverings to fill the slot.

“The next president pro tempore will be a strong conservative,” vowed Sen. Mike Delph, R-Carmel, who said he may seek the job if no other conservative candidate emerges.

At a minimum, said Sen. Jeff Drozda, R-Westfield, conservatives will have a strong voice in who becomes president pro tempore.
“The next leader will either be part of the new conservative wing, or it will be someone who can demonstrate that they can abide by our philosophies,” Drozda said.

The top job isn’t the only thing at stake. So are all the committee chairmanships, which are named by the president pro tempore; the topics of the committees; and control of the legislative agenda in the Senate.

Drozda predicted that, regardless of who becomes the new Senate leader, conservatives will control “a large portion of leadership.”

Judging from Drozda and Delph’s legislative history, they mean “conservative” in the biblical sense. Though, to be fair, unlike Senate candidate Walker, I don’t know their stances on public flogging.

Senator Meeks, that old curmudgeon, thinks the conservative whippersnappers are getting ahead of themselves. Traditionally, seniority has ruled in the Senate. Ironically, I suspect the conservative newcomers don’t give a hoot for traditions that don’t give them power.

“We’ll get more of them, too,” Meeks said [of the new theocrats]. “When you get a guy (Walker) who believes in public flogging, and he beats the Senate president pro tem, what does that tell you?”

It tells me that the inmates are running the asylum. I just hope the floggers don’t get the benefit of the doubt from voters just because they’re running under the brand-name made popular with Hoosiers by level-headed Republicans like Meeks, Garton, and Kenley. “Republican” today means something entirely different than it did a generation ago.

The article cites as potential candidates to fill the post: David Long, Jim Merritt, Luke Kenley, Mike Young, Jeff Drozda, and Mike Delph.

Ken Kusmer has a story for the Associated Press on a bit of corruption in the Daniels’ Family and Social Services Administration (FSSA). Richard Rhoad was the chief financial officer at FSSA. He was also president of a company called Allied Financial Services, LLC. Rhoad left FSSA on January 13, 2006.

On November 17, 2005, FSSA secretary Mitch Roob signed a $1 million contract between FSSA and Allied. Richard Rhoad also signed the contract, not in his capacity as FSSA’s chief financial officer but as Allied’s President. However, even the Daniels administration apparently has limits, because Gov. Daniels’ budget director Charles Schalliol didn’t sign off on the contract.

Instead, they merely let Rhoad leave his post at FSSA which paid $100,000 per year only to turn around as a private contractor and do the same job for $180,000 per year.

And this, dear readers, is one of the main problems with government privatization. Citizens and front-line workers get stiffed while cronies get rich. And this is just what’s happening with a relatively cash-strapped organization like the Family and Social Services Administration. I can only imagine what kind of shennanigans they’ll get up to with the tsunami of cash coming down the Toll Road pipeline. (I’m sure whatever it is will make Garton’s lifetime healthcare look like chump change.)

Update: I neglected to mention that Taking Down Words seems to have the blogospheric lead on this story with posts here, here, and here.

Libertarian Mike Sylvester has posted a synopsis of an interview he did with Dr. Tom Hayhurst, Democratic challenger to incumbent Mark Souder to represent Indiana’s 3rd Congressional District. (Have I mentioned that Souder is breaking a promise by running this year? Back in ’94 he said that he would serve no more than 12 years. If he kept his word, that would mean he was retiring this year instead of running for office again. Maybe he’s just bad at math. Looking at the budget deficits he’s had a hand in, that’s a plausible explanation.)

Looks like the theocratic wing of the Republican Party knocked off Senator Garton. That’s a shame. Hopefully whoever succeeds him as President pro tem of the Senate has his devotion to the integrity of the Senate’s processes. He really was pretty good about putting the institution of the Senate above temporary political gain, particularly, I am told, when compared to his predecessors in that position.

Update Michelle McNeil has an article on Garton’s ouster in the Indy Star. One thing about Greg Walker of which I had been unaware: he supports public flogging. Under what context, I do not know.

Advance Indiana has had good coverage of the race all along.

Some of the races are very preliminary still, but here are how the Congressional races are shaping up:

IN-01: Mark Leyva leads the GOP pack to take on Pete Visclosky. But it’s a 4 way race, his lead is slim, and only 17% of the vote is in.

IN-02: Joe Donnelly will be challenging Chris Chocola in November. Encouraging for the Democrats is that, with 80% of the vote counted, there have been 28,000 Democratic ballots in the 2nd District versus about 25,000 Republican ballots.

IN-03: Tom Hayhurst will be challenging Mark Souder. Using the previous ballot analysis, things might be fairly grim for Dr. Hayhurst in November. In the 3rd District, there have been about 11,000 Democratic ballots versus 37,000 Republican ballots with about 50% of the vote in.

IN-04: It’s not a lock at the moment, but with 60% of precincts reporting, David Sanders has just under 50% of the vote, while his opponents in the Democratic primary, Darin Kinser and Rick Cornstuble have about 25% apiece. The winner of that will challenge Steve Buyer. Again, the Republican advantage in terms of ballots is daunting — about 40,000 R versus 10,000 D.

IN-05: Still a toss up for the Democrats, but at the moment Katherine Carr is leading. The winner will take on Dan Burton.

IN-06: Barry Welsh will be taking on Mike Pence. Congratulations Barry. The ballots in the 6th District are breaking 20,000 D versus 40,000 R.

IN-07: Eric Dickerson will be taking on Julia Carson.

IN-08: Brad Ellsworth will be taking on John Hostettler. There were no primary challengers to either of these candidates.

IN-09: Baron Hill will be taking on Mike Sodrel. This one should be encouraging to the Dems with about 31,000 D ballots versus 19,000 R ballots having been cast with 57% of the precincts reporting.

I can’t think of any particular insights to offer, but the primaries are tomorrow. For a good number of races, this is the most choice voters are likely to get in that all too often one political party dominates the region, meaning that the primary winner will skate through the general election. So, go vote.

Also, my philosophy on choosing between a Democratic or Republican ballot is simply to choose the one with the most races that matter to you. In other words, don’t feel constrained by your party affiliation. Rather you should take the ballot that represents the better tool with which to express your governmental preferences.

I suppose that was marginally insightful.

The Louisville Courier Journal is running an AP story by Mike Smith focusing on Senator Garton’s primary challenge. Senator Bob Garton was elected in 1970 and has been leader of the Senate since 1980. For much of that time he controlled the Senate with 3 of his colleagues: Larry Borst, Morrie Mills, and Joe Harrison. Harrison is retiring this year, Mills retired several years ago, and Borst was ousted in a primary challenge by social conservative Brent Waltz. Garton faces a similar challenge from Greg Walker, another social conservative who is the darling of anti-choice groups like Indiana Right to Life.

In my opinion, it’s a shame that Republicans more focused on fiscal responsibility are being targeted by Republicans with more repressive social agendas. By-and-large, I and (I think) most Hoosiers agree with a responsible fiscal policy. Social conservatism is much more divisive. Unfortunately, I think less informed voters will see “Republican” and think they’re getting Republicans like Garton and Kenley when really they’ll be getting wingnuts like Waltz and Drozda.

Bob Garton has done an awful lot for the Indiana Senate. My understanding is that the pre-Garton Senate was disorganized at best, corrupt at worst. Sen. Garton was instrumental in giving Indiana an orderly and comparatively open legislative process in the Senate. Despite all that he has done, it’s true that he has controlled the Senate for an awfully long time, and I can see arguments to have him phased out of leadership. But not for the likes of Walker.