I think I’ve posted this before, and I don’t have a lot of new information, but here is how I see Indiana’s Congressional races breaking down. I’d say that Indiana’s 3rd and 4th Congressional districts are the most competitive and in that order.
IN-01 Pete Visclosky will win.
IN-02 Joe Donnelly will win.
IN-03 Democrat Mike Montagano is putting up a spirited campaign against incumbent Mark Souder and stands a realistic shot of winning. I’d probably (based on nothing concrete) put his chances at 45%.
IN-04 Nels Ackerson is also putting on a strong campaign against incumbent Steve Buyer. I’d put his chances of winning a bit lower than those of Montagano, maybe at 35-40%. Buyer is better at raising PAC money than Souder.
IN-05 Dan Burton will win.
IN-06 Mike Pence will win. (I like Barry Welsh’s energy, but his fundraising isn’t very good and Pence is probably better respected as a representative than Buyer or Souder.)
IN-07 Andre Carson will win.
IN-08 Brad Ellsworth will win.
IN-09 I give Baron Hill an 80% chance of winning this one. Mike Sodrel and Eric Schansberg are putting up legitimate campaigns, and this is probably the Democratic seat in Indiana most at risk this time around, but whatever concerns constituents might have about Baron Hill, I just don’t see the 9th as craving a return to Sodrel or breaking en masse to a Libertarian candidate.
In order from most Democratic to most Republican of districts, I’d say it goes:
IN-01: Visclosky
IN-07: Carson
IN-02: Donnelly
IN-08: Ellsworth
IN-09: Hill v. Sodrel/Schansberg
IN-03: Souder v. Montagano
IN-04: Buyer v. Ackerson
IN-06: Pence v. Welsh
IN-05: Burton
There are reports that the DCCC has invested $487,000 in TV advertising in the Third District race. Apparently, ads started today.
I haven’t seen any polls in recent weeks that have Sodrel breaking 40%. Hill has stayed over the magic 50% mark in those same polls.
I think Sodrel has worn out his welcome. 9th District voters gave him a shot in 2004, and got bit in the ass, hard. i also think the Republican party dumped on Sodrel when it failed to make up the loans he made to his campaign. If I were out 3-5 million of my own money, I wouldn’t continue to swim in the quicksand. I guess Mikey is a little stubborn.
Shansberg is also doing well for a 3rd party candidate. The 7% he’s pulling is no doubt from the libertarian-leaning Republicans in the district. I hope he makes it to 10%.
Finally,given a few more years, I think Brad Ellsworth would make a great Senate candidate for the Democrats. He’s pretty conservative and most of my liberal friends don’t like him, but I think he’s situated pretty well for a state-wide run.
What is that definition of insanity? Keep electing the same people over again and expecting different results.
Baron’s going to be fine. Obama has coattails, even in this district, and certainly compared to Kerry in ’04 (when Bush was still at 50% approval).
Actually, I think we CAN expect different results from Congress in their January 09 incarnation.
Countless times over the last 2 years, we have seen bills passed out of the House be severely watered-down or filibustered by Mitch McConnell in the Senate. McConnell’s entire life’s mission has been to grind the Senate to a halt and protect Bush’s agenda. Unfortunately, he has been pretty successful.
The fact that McConnell is a douche-bag is a given. Everyone knew he’d act this way. But, some blame has to be laid on Majority Leader Reid. I’m not a big fan. This position should be held by a bigger personality with a larger will to fight. Clinton, Kennedy (prior to the illness), Leahy, Durbin, or even Schumer would be better at this job.
BTW, if the Dems get close to 60 seats or go over, I’ll lay money Specter switches sides. He’s not a nut. He’s fairly pro-labor, and if he didn’t have to fight the wing-nuts in the Republican primary, I would guess he’d be very pro-labor (at least he’d better be in Pennsylvania).
We’ll switch Lieberman for Specter any day. And the chance to defeat McConnell would make my frickin day.
Yeah, I can’t stand Reid.. and wondered aloud during the primary if Hillary wasn’t better suited to be majority leader — surely Schumer or Lehy would be.
Reid seemed like a pretty effective minority leader prior to 2007; at least compared to Tom Daschle. Daschle was maddeningly ineffective.
Removal of the veto threat will put a bigger spotlight on the Republican filibusters and hopefully reduce them. A 60 seat Democratic majority, of course, would change the game completely.
I agree Doug. Id love to see 60. But without the veto threat I think 57-58 would be a heavy hand. Spector and Snowe may flip often. And Voinovich is faily moderate and would have to be concerned about 2010 and Tim Ryans challenge if he doesnt retire.
And I think today were at 57 at least.
We’ll get just enough to still need Lieberman. Luckily, right about then Lieberman will start sucking up to our power the same way he has for GOP power. Plus, he’ll be needing to work on his reelection.
The first three external polls– and Sodrel’s publicly-released internal poll– indicate that voters are defecting from Hill and Sodrel to me about evenly. The latest external poll indicates that I’m getting more votes from typical Hill voters– consistent with what we saw in 2006.
Why more from Hill? Probably my position on Iraq and my emphasis on the working poor and middle class. In any case, it’s interesting that so many people seem stuck to conventional wisdom that doesn’t seem all that wise.
I’d love to win, but the next-best goal is double-digits– to encourage a national dialogue on third parties and discontent with the two major parties.
I like third parties being involved. I don’t agree with anything the Libertarians have to say in this case, but their involvement does broaden the conversation.
My favorite third party candidate is Gatewood Galbraith. Although I’ve never lived in Ky when he’s running, I do get the satisfaction of watching him debate on Louisville public access TV. My girlfriend has had the good fortune to vote for him twice.
I didn’t have access to the internals on the polls E. Schansberg discussed, but I have to say his presence does seem to pull from Sodrel on the face value. I thought Baron would win, but I never thought Sodrel couldn’t make it to 40%.