Via the Hoosier Pundit and Real Clear Politics:
The poll, conducted by Indiana Legislative Insight, surveyed 601 registered voters between 5/27-6/1, for a margin of error of +/- 4%. Long Thompson and Daniels were tested.
General Election Matchup
Daniels……..51
Thompson…35Daniels has a big head start in the name recognition race. 60% of voters view him favorably, compared with 33% who see him in an unfavorable light. Long Thompson is viewed favorably by 30% of respondents, while 17% view her unfavorably.
Personally, I get the sense that Daniels probably has the edge but that it’s not as big as this poll suggests. I frankly don’t buy a 60% favorability rating for Gov. Daniels. But, this poll is useful as a media narrative baseline. When the gap closes, perhaps we can spill buckets of ink wondering about the cause of Daniels collapse in popularity, etc.
Hoosier Pundit suggests that Daniels’ slick ads and the Democrats tough primary fight has lead to Daniels’ rise in the polls. The ads probably helped him, and I’m sure the Democrats primary fight hasn’t helped, but I don’t get the sense that the Democratic Governor’s primary engaged enough people to make a huge difference. Perhaps I just misremember and the passage of time has diminished my recollection of the level of engagement of Hoosiers in that particular primary fight.
Jill Long Thompson has her work cut out for her. She and her surrogates certainly need to remind folks about Daylight Saving Time and the Toll Road and Daniels antics during 2005 and 2006. His style seems to be like Molly Ivins’ wrote of Daniels’ mentor, George W. Bush and his tenure as Texas governor. Do all the crazy stuff in the first couple of years, then ease up on the throttle and pretend to be all about moderation and bipartisanship. When re-elected, go back to doing the crazy stuff.
The Indiana governor’s race in 2008 reminds me of the 2004 presidential election.
Right now, JLT’s biggest selling point is “I’m not Mitch Daniels”. I don’t think that’s going to be enough, just like it wasn’t enough for John Kerry.
A poll in Northwest Indiana will tell you an entirely different story. No fans here except the 2o-some percenters. I would rather have Daffy Duck.
The gap will definitely narrow. A wrench in the election could be if John Waterman (GOP Senator) runs as an independent. He will take votes away from Daniels (even if it’s 3-4%) and could make it a more interesting race.
I thought in the long haul Shellinger would have had a better shot against Daniels had he had the opportunity to campaign more agrressively. JLT just doesn’t seem like a governor to me…….
ILI should invest in a calling list outside the Carmel – Zionsville area.
From the opening sentence of that para are we to assume that only 7% of those polled didn’t know who Daniels was while 53% had never heard of JLT?