(Via Kos) A South Bend Tribune/WSBT-TV poll indicates that Democratic challenger Joe Donnelly has a slight lead over Chris Chocola in Indiana’s Second Congressional District race, according to a report by James Wensits in the South Bend Tribune.
According to the poll, Donnelly had 46%, Chocola had 41%, 13% were undecided, and there was a 5% margin for error. Considering this was supposed to be something of a “second tier” race in Indiana, taking a back seat to the supposedly more hotly contested races in the 8th and 9th Districts, this might be really bad news for Congressional Republicans.
The South Bend Tribune article seems to confirm the suspicions of Rep. Chocola voiced by Tribune Columnist Jack Colwell back in February that local issues could be dangerous for Chocola:
Also, Chocola has a point about things in which he was not involved being a potential source of trouble.
The congressman was thinking of matters such as the leasing of the Toll Road, the daylight-saving time squabble[.]
According to the Tribune article on the recent poll:
[Pollster Delair Ali] said he was also surprised at the number of people who brought up the Toll Road (7 percent) and time zone change (5 percent) as campaign issues.
Ali now looks for Chocola to go really negative against Donnelly.
“He’s in deep and serious trouble,†Ali said of Chocola. “The good news for him is the election is in November.â€
Ali predicted that a nasty race is in the offing because Chocola needs to raise Donnelly’s negatives.
To do that, Ali said, Chocola must go on the attack against Donnelly.
As if on cue, another story in the Tribune today was on the GOP attacking Donnelly for, technically, late property tax payments. Some payments were late, but all were paid and all penalties were paid (with interest). Can you believe this? How dumb can the R’s be in Indiana? If there was an issue that has people PO’ed more than the toll road and the time zones, it is property taxes. Now the R’s expect to get some political mileage out of what is essentially a non-story and a situation that practically every Hoosier has found themselves in lately and that is paying their property taxes. Joe can, and did, pay his, but think of those who are in a real pinch and cannot feasibly pay theirs without significant financial hardship. Joe is thinking of them, but Chocola and the R’s are not. That is but one of the differences in this year’s election.
A negative campaign can only (and already has) backfired on Chocola because the public is sick of such tactics and is ready for a change. Let’s hear about REAL issues.
The time zone change and the toll road are issues simply because they are manifestations of a political culture where officials have not listened to their constituents and have shown disdain for dissenting opinions when it comes to their agendas. More negative attacks will only reinforce that perception. Hoosiers are ready for a change and that will begin in November.
I heard about the property tax story over at Kos. That’s just a dumb line of attack since Donnelly paid them and wasn’t trying to dodge them. The property tax system has been generally confusing and bumpy since the new assessment procedures. Combine that with the fact that they’re horribly unpopular, and Donnelly being late on his property taxes might win him more votes than they will lose.
All politics are local, as Tip O’Neill told us, and Count Chocola should be concerned — but not surprised — that local voters aren’t happy about late-night sunsets and private highways.
Any hand-wringing about local issues “in which he was not involved” are excuses in anticipation of a Chocola loss. Technicalities over late property tax payments suggest desperation. From my (1st district) perspective, the tide in the 2nd district seems to be turning, and Chocola seems more-and-more to be simply an interlude between Roemer and Donnelly.