According to a recent poll commissioned by the Evansville Courier Press, John Hostettler trails challenger Brad Ellsworth by 15%. More surprising than the margin is the low, low support Hostettler apparently has — The poll showed Ellsworth with 47.4% support — decent, but not a huge number. However, the poll showed Hostettler with 31.8%. This is among respondents who were comprised of 32.7% Republicans, 33.5% Democrats, and the remainder unaffiliated with either major party.
This poll smells like an outlier merely because of the huge margin and large percentage of undecideds. Guess we’ll wait and see.
I found the gender breakdown in the poll most interesting. It was 63.5 percent women and 36.5 men.
I can’t imagine I’m the only woman on the planet who, if I’d been born an undecided voter, might vote for Sheriff Ellsworth based on, well, his looks. (There apparently have been studies conducted that show the more attractive candidate in political races is the one who most often wins.)
That being said, I think this poll’s outcome is still pretty accurate.
I noted the overweighting of women to men too. If there is a “gender gap” present in this race where women lean more toward Democrats than do men there may be a built in Ellsworth bias in the way ISU conducted the poll. I’d guess Ellsworth is leading by at leastt 10 points, but I doubt it is by 15 points.
I still don’t feel comfortable with a fifteen point lead.
I agree that 15% seems very high. I think the race will be a lot closer on election day than what any poll has suggested. Hostettler has always managed to turn out his voters when it counts.
I’m guessing on election day it will be 52%-48% with Ellsworth coming out on top. Then Ellsworth can get that pay raise that Hostettler voted himself.