As Dan Rather might say, it’s tight as a tick here in Indiana with respect to the Presidential race going down the stretch. So, if you’re registered and have a preference for that race, you’ll want to vote — in fact, voting early might be a good option. (Though, I have my doubts about how many people would bother reading this blog but be indifferent to voting.)
Obama is polling at 45.9 and McCain at 45.3%. Remarkably, to me, six percent remain undecided. Despite my strong encouragement for folks to vote, if after all this time and all the information that has been made available with respect to the Presidential candidates you still have not been able to make a decision, perhaps you should just skip that part of the ballot.
As the Obama campaign points out, contrary to Republicans’ early belief, Obama’s efforts in Indiana were no bluff. He has a legitimate chance at winning here:
Jonathan Swain, a spokesman for Obama’s campaign in Indiana, said that while Republicans, and some pundits, had thought the Democratic push in the state was a bluff designed to force McCain to spend money, “we’ve shown that instead we’ve turned this into a battleground state. That is a direct result of the fact that Barack Obama took Indiana seriously and put the resources on the ground to wage a strong campaign.”
First and foremost, Obama showed up. That was a big part of why he’s having some success here. I don’t know that any Democratic Presidential candidate has even tried. Second, Indiana isn’t as blood red as is commonly thought – the Governor’s office was occupied by a Democrat from 1989 – 2005; the Indiana House of Representatives was controlled by the Democrats for much of that time and again in 2007-2008; and our Congressional delegation is currently 5 Democrats to 3 Republicans.
So, welcome to battleground status, Hoosiers. Maybe one day we can become as jaded to political attention as New Hampshire, Iowa, Florida, and Ohio.
RFK came through in 1968, a couple of weeks before he was killed. I think Clinton came through at some point. But this year, the campaigns have been here just about as much as any other battleground state.
2006 put Indiana on the map. For a couple of days right before that election, the national and international press looked toward Indiana to see if the Dems would pick up three congressional seats. Those pickups were a strong indicator of what a huge night the Democrats were having.
After 2006, and given Bush’s low popularity, as well as Indiana’s location between a bunch of Obama-favored and swing states, fighting in Indiana made perfect sense.
Doug, I agree that Indiana’s not as Red as it seems, though I scruple at using Evan Bayh as evidence.
But look: if you wanna be relevant to the political process, try, first of all, not being a reliable tool of a single party. Those forty years have included votes for Nixon, twice, both Bushes twice, and Gerald Ford who was suffering from total paralysis in the midst of the crumbling of the Rust Belt. Guaranteed pro-Big Business, pro-Big Military votes for forty years, and the result was a departed manufacturing base and the closing of every military base in the state. And a continuing status as the only reliable Red state in the nation which routinely pays more in Federal taxes than it gets back.
It took a remarkable set of circumstances to make the Indiana Democratic primary “relevant” this year (and in case you’ve forgotten, the winner was pretty much announced as the loser of the nomination the next day). It’s taken a remarkable candidate to make the race competitive, in the wake of a disastrous eight years, and it still required that he be willing to do something (namely campaign here) that most Democratic strategists would have advised against. Maybe if Democrats nationally, and in the state, had built a party identity over that period, instead of cowering in fear from 1972; maybe if the “Democratic” Senator from Indiana could tear himself away from his mirror long enough to help the state party, maybe then there’d be a shot at long-term relevance.
I don’t disagree. I haven’t been paying attention to politics for nearly as long as you have, but over the past 10 years or so, at least, it feels like Democrats have been acting like a battered spouse. Maybe if they keep quiet and don’t remind anyone they’re around, nobody will be mean to them.
Howard Dean is the genius. He set the precedent for collecting significant money through the web. He initiated the web based system that tracks voting real time to target calls to voters who have not yet voted, all the way through election day. His strategy is to campaign in all fifty states including Indiana, and to answer every charge, no matter how ridiculous, to prevent swift boating. Now it looks like his man will win and he’ll deserve to have a big Woohoo!
Howard Dean was also the first Democratic candidate to really motivate Hoosiers to write letters and get signatures on his behalf. Many of the Obama folks got their first taste of hands-on politics from the experience of the Dean campaign. After that campaign, there was an energized, active base ready for the next worthy candidate to put to use. Obama grew that base to an amazing extent.
I remember when Dean got tapped to be chairman, there was no shortage of rightwing talkers and bloggers thanking the Democrats for destroying any chances we had for success and helping guarantee a permanent Republican majority. I’m sure a lot of those people are still talking and typing, just about something else.
Just got home fifteen minutes ago from seeing Obama in Highland! Due to trick-or-treating we didn’t get there until 6:45 pm and got into a REALLY long line to get through security. We didn’t make it that far. As soon as the announcer started to announce Linda Pence everybody ran towards the staging area. We also ran and got into the security line. A guard pulled a number of us out and told us of a good place to stand that was not in the blocked off area. We ended up right up against the fence with a great view of Obama and could hear every word he said! The best line was a vamp on Halloween. He said his girls had a lot of trouble deciding what they would be for Halloween; but not Jon McCain. He is always George W. Bush!
The news said that they estimated 40,000 people were there-they were expecting 20,000. And the set up for inside to rally reflected that. When I looked behind me- there were thousends like us who did not get in.
Rachel Maddow ( MSNBC) has a plausible explanation why there are still undecided voters.She says that they are McCain supporters waiting for MCain to give them a reason to vote for him. So,in my view, after all is said and done , they will vote for McCain whether they see a reason or not,or maybe just not vote.
As far as Indiana voters are concerned,it would be interesting to find out how many Hillary supporters are voting for Obama.
I’m not sure how well that rationale holds water. The common wisdom, as I understand it, is that undecideds tend to break against the incumbent. McCain isn’t the incumbent, of course, but he’s the closest of the two.
One thing I fear is racism in the booth. Some people may not want a pollster to think they’re racist, so they say they’re voting Obama. Then, in the booth, they may fall back to voting McCain, maybe even telling the exit pollsters they just voted Obama.
Thankfully, it looks like Obama has enough lead to still overcome something like that.
Jason –
That behavior doesn’t, in itself, make a person racist.
Just unreasonably afraid of the accusation.
Maybe some day we really will transcend race – but it is not today, when so many people are so heavily invested in the concept.
Well it looks like Obama will win Tuesday so congrats to him and his campaign. Most folks that voted for H.Clinton in the primary that I know down this way(where no one lives quoting T) are voting for McCain-Palin,I voted early and after watching all the debates the one Brokaw moderated STUNK I cast my vote early for Obama most family members and friends went Mccain-Palin.
Never thought I’d vote for Obama though after a vigorous debate with Amy Masson about his illegal immigration stance which was brought on by his appearance on 60 minutes when he was announcing for president a year ago or so.
Reasons for Obama. Free trade has devistated the many manufacturing base of this country he says he’ll crack down on these agreements so they’re not one sided. He says he’ll do something with the healthcare system.
Those are the main reasons. I’d vote on the immigration issue but these two birds(McCain and Obama) have the same stance no matter how each tries to spin it.
As I stated before to Amy Masson I was wrong in dismissing senator Obama as a candidate so I’ll eat some crow on that. I only hope he will govern in the center when he is elected. I find his associations troubling with Ayers,Wright,Phleger,Rezko,A.C.O.R.N,and Khalidi so we’ll see. I made a informed decison I believe anyway.
Mccain lost the campaign when the financial meltdown occurred he went from being slightly ahead to sinking like a stone. The democrats are just as culpable for the mess Dodd and Frank takers of much Fannie and Freddie money we’re their protectors and Clinton signed a law supported by a majority of republicans to repeal forgive me for butchering this Glass something or rather. That said the party in the White House gets the blame.
The media is biased for Obama no question about it and it’s been horrible.
Now for my opinion and frankly most of my family and friends opinion is we love gvnr Palin and she will be heard from again. In fighters will blame her for McCains loss but she’s the only bright spot on the ticket and did quite well aside form the Couric interview.
Her favorables we’re brought down by this which is fair but the major media NYT,WAPO etc did hit piece after hit piece on her while letting Joe Biden make gaffe after gaffe and in some cases outright false hoods.
Now I know most of you probably don’t like Palin and that’s fine it’s a free country but we do and hope she comes back to the national stage.
Have a good election night folks it should be a happy one and even though I supported senator Obama I did so with reservations and hope I’m proven right. Oh yeah Indiana in play I’d of never thought it possible and lastly I’m also concerned about the democrats having absolute power. This is a corrupting influence in my opinion the party in power tends to over reach. You see what absolute power by the republicans brought didn’t you.
McCain didn’t get nearly the number of negative stories about him that he should have. The Obama camp was very EASY on him.
Palin back to the national stage after this? She’ll be lucky to keep her job in Alaska! LOL.
Wish me luck, my daughter and I are going to the Grant Park rally Tuesday night.
PTN, re: Free Trade. Look into how protectionism worked out for the British, when jobs were leaving the UK for the USA. Doomed to repeat history, etc.
I agree with you that McCain lost the election with his handling of the bailouts and the suspension of his campaign. Desperate, to the hilt. Both McCain and Obama voted the same way, but wow there’s a difference in perception there.