Super Tuesday has come and gone and, while it got the job done, it was less super than anticipated. On the Democratic side, it was more or less a wash with Clinton and Obama pretty much giving as good as they got. That means that the post-Super Tuesday primaries will be meaningful.
On the Republican side, it looks McCain is in the driver’s seat with what has to be a troublesome trend of not winning in any of the typically “red” states other than his home state of Arizona as well as Oklahoma. Romney took Alaska, Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, and Utah. Huckabee took Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, and West Virginia. McCain also took California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey, and New York.
From here on out, the primary schedule is as follows:
* February 9: Louisiana, Kansas (R), Washington (D caucuses)
* February 10: Maine (D caucuses)
* February 12: District of Columbia, Maryland, Virginia
* February 19: Hawaii (D), Washington (R primary), Wisconsin
* March 4: Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont
* March 8: Wyoming (D)
* March 11: Mississippi
* April 22: Pennsylvania
* May 6: Indiana, North Carolina
* May 13: Nebraska (primary), West Virginia
* May 20: Kentucky, Oregon
* May 27: Idaho (R)
* June 3: Montana, New Mexico (R), South Dakota
Update John Cole brings us some reporting from the murky world of Democratic delegate counting.
The Obama camp projects topping Clinton by nine delegates, 845 to 836.
NBC News, which is projecting delegates based on the Democratic Party’s complex formula, figures Obama will wind up with 840 to 849 delegates, versus 829 to 838 for Clinton.
Ridiculously close no matter what. Given the institutional advantages Clinton has but with the ground Obama has covered in recent weeks, at this point I’d characterize this race as two souped up cars going ridiculously fast with Obama going maybe a mile an hour faster and Clinton maybe a half car length ahead. Meanwhile, the Republicans seem to be playing bumper cars.
Maybe we’ll count for a change?
Could be. I suspect that depends on what happens on March 4. Ohio and Texas are suddenly looming very large.
Doug, a wash? Seriously? Clinton was the presumptive nominee before Iowa. Just two weeks ago she held huge leads in many, if not most of the Super Tuesday polls. Barack Obama closed that gap with a huge surge. We should also keep in mind the January fundraising numbers: $10 mil for Clinton, $35 mil for Obama.
I’m looking at this as being an expected night for Clinton and a big night for Obama.
With Edwards out of the race, I’m strongly inclined toward Obama, so I’m hopeful that this represents “momentum” for him. But, after seeing cable news personalities talk about the concept for so long, I’m not sure what it means.
I was just going in terms of concrete results. Both picked up a comparable number of delegates.
And, just an aside even though it’s been said to death — that guy can give a speech. In terms of stump speaking ability, I’d put McCain in last place, Romney and Clinton about equal, Huckabee somewhat ahead of them, and Obama well ahead of the pack.
Obama’s campaign needs continued momentum to survive, and Clinton needs to just hang on to what had been large leads for her. Both happened last night. So on we go.
Just at a glance, it looks like Clinton won in a lot of places where the Democrats can expect to win anyway in November. Places like California, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts. Obama won where Democrats under Dean’s 50-state strategy made significant gains recently (even in places where they didn’t actually win, their percentage of the vote went up last time). States like Idaho, Kansas, Colorado. I expect he will win those states in the West and Northwest that are surrounded by the states he won last night. These are places Dean had targetted as being the key to the longterm viability of the party, and I think it’s telling that Obama is the one winnning there.
Indiana may matter. Pennsylvania, right before us, is a pretty big prize and may be the state that pushes one or the other to the nomination. But if not, there is a pretty big time gap then before the Indiana primary, and I would expect to see candidates here in a big way. The national interest would dwarf what it was like in the last congressional elections when Indiana garnered so much national attention.
The primary system doesn’t seem like a very good way to pick a winning candidate does it? What you’d really want to do, strategically, is pick a candidate who would be acceptable in states that lean toward your party, put some states that lean the other way in play, and be boffo in ‘battleground’ states.
I lean toward Obama too, and one reason is that I think Hillary Clinton is winning states that will go for the Democrat, no matter who it is, and not doing as well in the ‘reddish’ states. But then, Obama picked up a bunch of delegates in states that will probably go Republican anyway.
At the same time, Huckabee is picking up delegates in the south, but would be lucky to win any states north of the Mason-Dixon line in a general election.
It makes one wonder if the ‘smoke-filled room’ from days of yore was actually a better system for conducting party business.
I’m not positive, but at the moment, it looks like Romney is coming out the best in those battleground type states. McCain is winning a lot of “blue” states he probably doesn’t have a prayer of winning in the general election. Huckabee is winning a lot of “red” states that the Democrats probably can’t touch in the general.
McCain won Florida, which is pretty significant. But Romney won Michigan, Minnesota, and Colorado.
Not so Super Wednesday–what do expect an Ash Wednesday to be;-)
Romney did win the VERY blue states of Minnesota and North Dakota. Of course in MN it was probably all those “outstate” farmers. Those FEW republicans in the Cities probably voted for Mc Cain. (Trust me–I was one of those few Republicans at one time!)
Most likely the democratic candidate will carry these states; along with MI, MA and some of the other states Romney has won. Even Huckabee’s win in WV will be negated as that state traditionally goes Democratic.
I hope Indiana does end up counting this year. It would be nice to see Obama drive the fifteen or so miles to cross the border into NW Indiana!
Hehe, unrepentant sinner that I am, I’d completely forgotten that today is Ash Wednesday. I remember one time being in the process of pointing out to someone that they had dirt or something on their forehead as it dawned on me that the mark was intentional.
Is it looking like a McCain/Huckabee ticket? I think that’s the band-aid McCain will put on his candidacy to try to appease Limbaugh and have a chance in the bible belt.
Then we would just hope that the two craziest guys don’t somehow cause some kind of harmonic convergence that leads people to overlook how crazy they are and vote for them.
Check out my blog. The Democrats are winning EVERYWHERE. Blue state, red state, it doesn’t matter.
The only states where Democrats got less primary votes than Republicans are Utah, Arizona, and Alaska.
It doesn’t matter if Obama or Hillary are the nominee. Democrats are going to crush Republicans this November.
McCain will be the nominee, and he will go on to win Arizona and Alaksa. It will be a fiasco of Mondale proportions.
Well, Doug, you gave me a launching point for today’s sermon with that title–thanks!
BTW-I like to make my ashen crosses on peoples’ foreheads nice and big;-)
If it’s worth doing, it’s worth doing right. Go big or go home!
I left this blog along time ago as the time debate was ending since a few thought is wasn’t worth debating but since the election has rolled around I thought I’d come back for one particular thought and a few observations since I love politics especially on a national level.
My first and main thought was to APOLOGIZE to Amy Masson as she and I got into a spirited deabte about a presidential candidate Obama and his then appearance on 60 minutes that Sunday evening.I dismissed Obama as a candidate and especially some of his idea’s on some of the provisions he put into the failed amnesty bill the year before this last one failed.
So I do apologize to Amy Masson for dismissing Obama but not my disagreement with much of what he stands for.
My political observations about Mr.Obama are I think he can win not only the nomination but the whole thing.He is a charismatic speaker,with a powerful message of change.Mrs.Clinton represents the past,has tremendous baggage and is out of money.Today she loaned her campaign 5 million $.He is killing her on fund raising and has great momentum.
Now I used to be a democrat and have been all of my life but have now gone over to the dark side the republicans.I just do not agree with the democrats on many issues anymore especially illegal immigration.
My observations about the republicans this year is we do not have a candidate.The bloggers,grass roots,and radio people HATE McCain and I’m with them.While McCain can win some cross over Dems and independents he still is not winning his base.They hate McCain- Kennedy immigration,Gang of 14 on the judges confirmation procedure,McCain Feingold and a whole list of things and I believe most will vote down the ballot or stay home this Fall.
Can you imagine Obama on stage in a debate with McCain who is a terrible speaker,has a bad temper is over 70 yrs old and been in the Washington over 25yrs?
Doug Masson once stated to me people usually spend their time on blogs with those they agree with which is why I am usually on Michelle Malkin.com,Hot Air,The Corner on National Review online,Town Hall etc.I mean no matter how much I could argue and put forth evidence on illegal immigration and other issues we disagree about I’m not going to change any minds and likewise.
Well I didn’t mean to hijack your discussion so I will leave again but after watching this political season and the rise of Mr.Obama it made me think of that heated debate those many months ago on a Sunday and how Amy was right and I was wrong in dismissing Mr.Obama for I really do believe he may just be the next president of these United States of America because he has a message of hope and sometimes a little hope goes along way!!!!