I’m not going to put Indiana in the Obama column based on one poll, but the Indianapolis Star is reporting that a poll they commissioned shows Obama leading in Indiana. It shows him leading 47-44% over McCain with something like 6% of people undecided and a 4% margin of error.
My completely unscientific methodology also shows Obama doing well — on Saturday, driving the 5 miles or so home from the Layflats Festival out by the Amphitheater in Lafayette, I saw 6 or 7 bumper stickers and yard signs for Obama compared to 1 for McCain. In the same area 4 years ago, I rarely saw much in the way of John Kerry signs.
I think the best we can say at this point is that Obama is doing awfully well in Indiana for a Democrat. Normally, the networks call Indiana about 1 minute after the polls close. This year, maybe they’ll have to wait a half hour or so. While I expect Obama to win this election, and I’d be tickled to see Indiana go for him; I am not holding my breath. At the least, the McCain campaign probably needs to feel a little skittish and to think about not taking Indiana votes completely for granted.
The county-by-county Democratic primary vote points the way to how Obama could win Indiana in November.It was fascinating to see how Obama beat Clinton in every university city.
The rule of thumb has been that an Obama voter will stay an Obama voter ,but that a Clinton voter may change parties in November
Get out the 18-30 vote and Obama may win.
Revisiting the primary vote map would be worthwhile.
It all goes back to geography and history here — settlement patterns, urbanization, contact with minorities, education level. I think this general election will be studied much as the primaries very closely in the future.
If the Obama campaign can turn out the YOUTH and Minority vote in ways not seen since 1968, then this will work in Indiana.
We absolutely MUST get out the word for Obama. Imagine McCain/Palin trying to ‘fix’ this latest financial crisis! Palin being absolute dumb on economics (except when coached with answers, which she spouts repeatedly); and McCain an author of the present anti-regulations which has caused the whole problem — remember 1990 and the “Keating Five”? Well, guess who was one of them? Yes, McCain. Eventually causing the anti-regulation of S&Ls – and remember that fiasco. I know, I worked for one that failed and most employed there saw it coming. PLEASE get out the word! Now being from Alabama, I hear many say publically they are backing Obama to the Dem party, and privately they say they’d never vote for a black person; so don’t believe the polls! Get Out And Spread The Word for OBAMA/BIDEN!! PLEASE! I’ve lost almost half of my retirement funds already!!!
It’s a long shot, but with McCain doing nothing in this state, I could see it happening.
Remember, Obama’s field organization in Indiana is large. McCain doesn’t have one.
Obama could do in Indiana what W did in Ohio in 2004, turnout his voters in unexpected areas and in unexpected numbers.
There are a lot of Obama signs in Tell City. Then there are these very large homemade signs telling me to “Vote For Real Change”. Oddly, those signs have McCain/Palin on them. I don’t think either “real” or “change” mean what they think they mean…
Hopefully I’ll get to meet some of those Tell City folk on W 9/24 at my town hall. If they want “real change”, I know where they can find it at the congressional level!
Give place and time and I’ll see if I can make it.
phone your friends and wake your neighbors; it’s 7:00 local time on W 9/24 at the Perry Co. library in TC
Remember that McCain doesn’t need to have a ground operation of his own, because the IN REP Party has been very grassroots organized for years. They are using every county party office as a way to get out their vote. Obama’s field offices are just creating a more even playing field.. and registering a LOT of new voters, who have no track record of voting.
T–Hope you get to the Town Meeting. We have even heard of Dr. Schansberg in Wayne Co. Mom
Looking at the Perry County Republican headquarters, I think they’re running a guy named Abraham Lincoln for president this year.
T,
You know it’s actually funny. They go absolutely batshit crazy over “libruls” in the Perry County News, then put a liberal’s face on their headquarters.
Lessons in irony