On Saturday, the Democrats had caucuses in Nebraska, Washington, and the Virgin Islands and a primary in Louisiana. Barack Obama won them all handily – crushing 2/3s margins in Nebraska and Washington, 90% of the vote in the Virgin Islands, and a slightly more competitive 53 – 39% win in Louisiana. Because of her ties to the party establishment, Clinton is still basically tied in terms of total delegates; but in terms of elected delegates, Obama is opening up a lead. These were relatively small states, and Clinton is expected to do much better in big states such as Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania in the near future, but any way you cut it, it’s a bad night when your best state is a 15 point loss.
Meanwhile, in the Republican primary, John McCain was supposed to be rallying the party around him as his nomination is all but assured. Despite being the presumptive nominee, he lost huge to Huckabee in Kansas, lost in Louisiana, and barely squeaked out a win in Washington State. Huckabee is seen to be out of range in terms of delegates. Not to be morbid, but if I were him, I’d be at least cognizant of the fact that John McCain is 71 years old. Furthermore, it’s clear that the Republicans aren’t at all comfortable with McCain as their nominee. As a minister, Huckabee presumably a believer in miracles. If I were him, I’d stick around until I was mathematically eliminated or until I got a really, really good deal from McCain. I don’t think they’d make a very complimentary President/Vice President combination. I think their negatives would have a higher synergistic effect than their positives. The right-wingers won’t be eager to go out to vote for McCain with or without Huckabee and the moderates will tend to be scared away by Huckabee.
I suspect this dynamic would be even more pronounced if McCain was facing Obama than if he was facing Clinton. I think Obama would be a bit more successful in sucking moderates away from McCain and the wingnuts wouldn’t get quite as lathered up about Obama as they would about Clinton. I tend to think either Clinton or Obama will beat McCain in the general election but that Obama might have longer coat tails in the down ballot races.
I think McCain/Huckabee is about the only viable ticket they can make. The evangelicals would flock to it, having seen over the last eight years what influence a veep can have. The establishment Republicans would hate that ticket completely, but would still come out and vote. I’m sure McCain would make some private assurances to the right people that he’s seen the light and is one of them now. He’ll throw in his mother, too, if that’s what it takes.
Otherwise, if McCain doesn’t pick someone like Huckabee, then a lot of the crazies stay home.
They might also reasonably think that the media will treat them as the Straight Talk/Aw Shucks ticket, and the voters might go along for the ride. I mean, the electorate was dumb enough to vote for Bush after already watching him for four years. They’ll fall for just about anything.
You have to remember that the electorate was coming out and voting for Bush one year after 9/11. We were also at the start of the war. If the election had been one year later, Bush would not have won. I can tell you right now it’s the last time I’ll vote by emotion. I know many other Republicans who feel that way. Although…I really don’t know what I am anymore.
Mc Cain/Huckabee will not get my vote.
I hope that folks don’t even vote solely on McCain or his intentions. The reality is that Bush, his policies, and his appointments have done damage that needs to be repaired. McCain simply has obligations to his political party that will hinder his ability to repair that sort of damage regardless of his personal inclination.