So, it looks like Indiana will potentially play a significant role in the GOP primary. Indiana has a winner-take-all system for awarding delegates, both by Congressional District and at-large. It awards 30 delegates to the winner of the state-wide vote and 27 delegates spread among Indiana’s nine Congressional districts (three per district). The winner of a given district gets those three delegates. Nate Silver, the fivethirtyeight pollster and analyst, says that if Trump wins Indiana, he’ll head into that territory where it will take something momentous to stop him from getting a first ballot win at the Republican convention. If he loses Indiana, the analysis becomes much different:
If Trump loses Indiana, however, that will suggest the race is still fairly volatile week-to-week, that he’s very likely to lose states such as Nebraska that vote later in May, and that the geographic and demographic divergences in the GOP haven’t reversed themselves so much as they’ve become more exaggerated. It will improve the morale of anti-Trump voters and change the tone of press coverage. And mathematically, it will make it hard (although not quite impossible) for Trump to win 1,237 delegates outright; he’d be back to fighting tooth-and-nail for every uncommitted delegate.
Silver thinks this is probably a “must-win” for Trump’s opponents (so, realistically, Cruz — because of Indiana’s winner-take-all status and Kasich having pulled out.)
Former local reporters, Eric Bradner and Tom LoBianco, who have moved on to gigs with CNN, have an excellent piece introducing the nation to Republican politics in Indiana. Among other things, they describe the dissatisfaction of what they call the “Daniels Republicans” with the available choices. These are the suburban moderates living in the Marion County doughnut counties (Boone, Hancock, Hendricks, and Johnson Counties).
Just like the national party, Indiana’s Republicans have been at a crossroads for more than four years, with members struggling to decide whether this is the party of former Gov. Mitch Daniels and former Sen. Dick Lugar or the party of Gov. Mike Pence and impassioned same-sex marriage battles.
. . .
But with Kasich pulling out of Indiana, these “Daniels Republicans” — staunch on fiscal issues and lukewarm on social hot-buttons — appear to be left without a home heading into Tuesday.
Such Republicans will mostly want someone to stop Trump but don’t have much in common with Cruz.
Cruz has not helped himself at all with his basketball gaffe. It’s trivial and shouldn’t be the basis of votes, but when you’re so obviously pandering to Hoosiers with basketball stuff, you can’t get it this wrong — when part of the knock on you as a candidate is that you’re a stiff who can’t relate to regular people. Cruz was in a Knightstown gym where part of the movie “Hoosiers” was shot, having someone measure the rim as a callback to the scene where Coach Dale settles his players before the big game by demonstrating that the dimensions of the court for the state finals at Butler Fieldhouse (now Hinkle) were the same as back in Hickory. But, Cruz flubbed his line:
“You know, the amazing thing is that basketball ring here in Indiana, it’s the same height as it is in New York City and every other place in the country,” Cruz said.
There’s just so much that’s mockable about that moment. The shameless pandering. The gratuitous knock on New York City. And the awkward Cruz revealing himself as a stranger in a strange land. My favorite was the tweet someone forwarded to me, “Cruz: ‘Boys, we’re going to win this election by running the ol’ chain-link fence play.'”