Looks like some tight races here in Indiana. Lake County is delaying its results, reportedly because it’s counting absentee votes and won’t release results until those are counted. My skeptical side figures that, even if Clinton is winning the state, someone in Lake County figures to jam up her ability to claim victory until after most folks go to bed. She’s up by about 4% but Lake County could possibly erase that advantage.
The Governor’s race is tight, tight, tight. Schellinger appears to be up by a percent or so. Andre Carson has won in the 7th with about 46% to Woody Myers 24%. Dan Burton fended off his challenger 52 to 45%.
Obama won North Carolina in convincing fashion.
Good times.
We got thumped here in Perry County. The Obama team hung out here over pizza and beers until the restaurant closed, and now I’m home waiting for Lake, and thinking Hillary has declared victory a bit soon.
Dan Burton winning was an unfortunate side effect of the Democratic presidential campaign taking up all the oxygen.
Because, honestly, Burton is a scumbag.
How Andre Carson won is beyond me, but then again, I never understood how his grandmother was winning the last few either.
I went to the town of Griffith town hall and watched the votes coming in. For a blue collar community the votes were pretty well split between Hillary and Barack.
I see that Monroe county doesn’t have their vote in either.
I’ll stay up to see what happens here in Lake county.
I’ll say that Barack still loses but by 2% and then she only gains 2 delegates.
Part of Gary put their votes in, now it is down to a 1% gap. Fun stuff!
When it was still 10% difference, a buddy and I went county by county and it pointed to a less than 10k vote loss, or maybe an outside chance of a win for Obama. We calculated Lake needing to come through for 30-40k. They just gave 20k, and now we’re in a pause. The reality is that this is an Obama victory regardless, as he has broken her serve. But I think he’s going to win this state. I still can’t believe Bayh felt comfortable enough with her margin to declare this thing. Crazy. Someone’s going to win this by 5k votes.
Bless Union County. It looks like they’re not even going to bother… Do they know there was an election today?
Wow!! As an expatriate (although a native Hoosier), hats off to you all who voted yesterday. Hope this bodes well for Obama, he is the only candidate who realized the “gas tax holiday” is an asinine proposal. I hope when us Kentuckians vote on May 20, we will realize gimmicks don’t work.
CBS News called this for Clinton, like, three or four hours ago…
Gotta love Lake county. I’ll be interested to see our paper tomorrow to see how the votes broke down by community.
T-where are you finding your county breakdown info?
Nevermind…I found it on my paper’s website.
Interesting that Hillary lost in St. Joseph and Elkhart counties; two very blue collar counties.
Looking at the map some more-depending on which communities are still out in La Porte (like Michigan City)and Porter counties (this is more of a long shot); Obama could end up winning the upper tier of Indiana from Elkhart county to the Illinois state line.
Bah. Lake didn’t project out. Clinton now up about 22k. Obama gave it a good run. At least she crowed about it a couple of hours ago, and she’s already cancelled tomorrow’s TV appearances hours ago.
She successfully chewed off her leg to escape the trap, and will probably limp onward to the next contest.
She wins KY and WV handily, but he takes OR — and then she gracefully bows out on May 20th, because it’s impossible for her to win.
Ok, so that’s my fantasy.
It appeared to me that they were holding back results to keep Clinton off tv.They noted on CNN and FOX that the Clinton camp was angry over this late reporting even though had the situation been reversed they would do the same thing thats the nature of the game.Bad night for camp Clinton they needed the exact opposite to happen,a big win in Indiana and a close loss in Carolina.The race was pretty much over before this and now it is.I think she’ll go on and take victories in West Virginia and KY lose Oregon and bow out but I could be wrong.I figured she’d win Indiana by 6 to 8 points.
McCain will win both these states this Fall but I just don’t see how he will win a general elcection against Obama.Most of the voters who support Clinton will in the end vote for Obama a portion won’t but I don’t think it will matter.McCain who is a giant free trader just can’t sell that message in Ohio or PA. where communities have been devistated by these agreements like NAFTA and globalization in general where high paying manufacturing jobs get replace by service jobs.I may have this wrong but I don’t believe any republican has won the White House without carrying Ohio.The free trade McCain supports isn’t free since all it produces is trade deficits.In a recent town hall meeting in Youngstown McCain was confronted by a angry steel worker,as you may or may not know China has flooded the U.S. market with cheap steel which in many instances is not up to standard and is showing stress fractures in several applications it was used in.But hey it’s cheap just like all the other tainted maufactured junk and sea food they send over here.We try never to buy anything made in China but that’s impossible so we do our best.
I guess I’ll vote for Brad Ellsworth this Fall and leave the presidential spot balnk.I just don’t care for either McCain or Obama.If the democrats relly want to bury McCain they need to keep highlighting the fact that Obama supports comprehensive immigration reform and McCain sponsored and supported that bill also which almost killed his campaign last summer.The republican base hates this type of legislation and McCain skirted through his primary not being able to be pinned down on the issue.Glad to see everyone excited your candidate had a big night last night.Good luck in the general election.
Since Obama almost pulled off an upset victory in Indiana,I was interested to isolate the strategic voting phenomenon or in other words, the much speculated ‘Limbaugh factor’. How many primary voters for Hillary had no intention of voting for her in November? This may be isolated best ,imo, by looking at the smaller Indiana counties which are heavily Republican,and have traditionally voted that way,no matter what.Here area a few random small county results with percentage vote for Clinton taken from the map at:http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard
Franklin:69%,,Cass:61%,Jasper,65%,Jasper,65%,
Switzerland:75%,Greene:65% I thank my interest in the TZ debate for knowing where these counties are.
I’ve been aware for a long time of the similar strategic voting the French political parties typically organize. France has over 20 political parties and they keep appearing and disappearing.They’re small,often one-issue parties, and easily mobilized to vote strategically so as later to form advantageous coalitions with other willing pre-targeted small parties.But democracy really bogs down,even compared to the US political system,and sometimes the only option left is barricades in the streets with cafe chairs and tables.
This process has made me very appreciative of our very stable American 2-party system, and although a certain faction may take over a party in american politics and use it for their own interets,their doctrine gradually becomes too self-serving and corrupted and the party seeks fresh ideas to become rejuvenated and fresh,which hopefully is what is happening with Democrats now,and will occur at some later date with Republicans,and re-establish a viable 2-party system.
I’ve always been strongly against any 3rd party movement because it makes democracy inefficient and makes strategic voting almost required.And besides, who wants to be like the French?
It’s long forgotten,that if not for Nader in 2000, his 100,000 FL votes would largely have gone to Gore in 2000.And we we would not have suffered through the last 8 years of horrible government. This is the best example I can think of how our 2-party system protects us from extremism.He never would have made into the Democratic party.
It may take a while,but the 2-party system is eventually self-cleansing.
Extremism and Belief over Constitutioinal law destroys democracy.Big money / vote-buying also does. But big money is a separate issue, and should be handled separately, hopefully starting with Obama’s efforts.
Limbaugh will brag about his influence. But in the end, due to proportional allocation of delegates, his influence has been minimal. Maybe she would have withdrawn if she got 2% less in Indiana, but maybe not.
Obama got what he needed last night. Republican pundits look kind of depressed about it.
I suppose Obama will concede and mostly ignore Kentucky. Part of me would love to see him attempt to engage the voters of Kentucky. Looking at his numbers down here along the river, there’s not enough time to make much of a dent down there.
Yeah, seems like he’d be better off resting up and saving some money by ignoring West Virginia and Kentucky, given the numbers. But, that’s contrary to the 50 state strategy he and Dean seem to be embracing. And, even if he won’t win Kentucky now or in the primary, developing an organization and making the Republicans play a little defense probably helps him in the general election and almost certainly helps the prospects of Democrats in down-ticket races.
Hey Doug… I tookma leaf from your old newspaper (Richmond Palladium-Item) last night at midnight to figure out Union County’s mess.
It seems that they stopped counting after 6 precincts, because someone noticed errors in the school board ballots. They called all the pollworkers to return at 11 and expected to have the TOTAL VOTE recounted by 2 AM. I noticed also that the 2004 DEM primary only had about 300 votes while last night they polled over 1100. I can’t imagine that’s normal there — so many Republican and Ind votes.
I will also note that Obama won Boone and Hamilton Counties. How to account for that? They hate Hillary? They LIKE gas taxes? They think Obama is easier to beat than HRC?
Would love to see that debate.
Boone & Hamilton? I don’t know – maybe a bunch of rich white folks who aren’t too firmly tied to the GOP?
It’s impossible to figure out exactly what those vote totals mean relative to the Republicans since they didn’t have such hotly contested races. Even so, I’d suspect those numbers have to at least worry Republican party officials. They’ll probably have to play defense in places they’re not used to wasting resources on.
I would say that he will go balls out in KY and WV as well, but OR is where he win win and hopefully big. He can’t spend the money he takes in the primary for the general, right?
BTW, what are the spending limits for the general election? Can I contribute now?
Just wondering why you think Obama should lay off West Virginia and Kentucky?
Obama always starts waaaay down against Hillary, and comes back. The more he campaigns somewhere, the better he does. In some places like Indiana and Pennsylvania, it’s not always enough to win. But doing better than expected is the secret of his success this year, and little by little he is getting the delegates to win this thing.
Why concede even one delegate to Clinton?
Another observation I’ve heard is that Obama has been solidifying his base in states that have already had their primaries. So the money he spends in a state is not in any way wasted. He gets his name out in the state, shows that he cares about that state, and gets the Hillary voters on his side post-primary.
I don’t have a great reason for suggesting he should lay off in those states. He just looks a little worn down. A little R&R might recharge his batteries a bit and get him ready for the long haul. On the other hand, if Clinton is going to go scorched earth, — and I guess Carville was on TV today talking up Florida and Michigan — Obama can’t just sit back and take fire.
To be honest I agree with Doug. He should take two days off and then hit it hard in WV and KY this weekend. By the end of the rally on Monday, I was feeling his tiredness…
I don’t have a problem with him taking a few days off. But he should be putting all available resources into these states. Run ads, send out mailings, continue the GOTV efforts, everything that paid off in Indiana.
He needs to crush Clinton in all the upcoming primaries. He has the money and manpower to do it.
BTW here’s what is being said up her about the late results.
Late vote results are criticized and explained
Here’s the real link.
BTW Doug, how do you shorten a link?
http://www.thetimesonline.com/articles/2008/05/07/updates/breaking_news/doc4821d725588d0479316895.txt
Oh yes, and I had to love the quotes at the end of the article by George Van Til. He’s the county surveyor up here who was caught: 1. letting his teenage son drive a county vehicle to high school and 2. Filling up his personal vehicle with gas from the county pumps. And both these incidents happened back to back. Wonder what else he was doing?
Buzzcut, I tried to be part of the solution and get this clown voted off teh ticket. Sorry there weren’t more of me out there.
Don’t worry, you’ll have the opportunity to do it again in November. You’ll just have to be a man and vote for a Republican.
It’s not hard. Most heterosexual white men do it.
I love that Van Til quote. Talk about the pot calling the kettle black. Thanks for the tip, that’s going on my blog!
Don’t worry-on most of the local elections I do. It’s the only way we’ll possibly change the bad juju in this county.
Thought you’d be one of the few to get the complete irony;-)