I provided this run down over at Soapblox/Chicago and thought I’d go ahead an cross-post it here. Take this post with a huge grain of salt. I’m opining without a great deal of knowledge on these Congressional races.
IN-01: The incumbent is Democrat Pete Visclosky. I do not know of any Republican challengers for that seat. Conclusion: Strong Democratic hold.
IN-02: The incumbent is Republican Chris Chocola. The challenger is Democrat Joe Donnelly. Recent polling suggests Donnelly is behind by about 4% but Chocola’s approval is below 50%. I hear that conventional wisdom is that undecideds tend to break for the challenger. Also, Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels is likely an albatross for any Republican in this area. Daniels is polling at 31% approval and 52% disapproval — likely in substantial part because of his mishandling of Indiana’s unique Daylight Saving Time/time zone issue. Chocola may also be vulnerable because he took money from convicted bribe recipient, Duke Cunningham. Conclusion: Weak Republican hold.
IN-03: Republican Mark Souder is being challenged by Democrat Tom Hayhurst. There are a few other Democrats running in the primary, but Hayhurst seems to have done a great job fund raising for a Democrat in that district. I have no idea how realistic his chances are, but Hayhurst provides the first credible threat in that district in quite some time. Conclusion: Likely Republican hold.
IN-04: Republican Steve Buyer is being challenged by Democrat Richard Cornstuble. This is my district, and I have heard and read absolutely nothing about the challenger. Writing this diary, I came across this article announcing Mr. Cornstuble’s candidacy. But, given my interest level in state politics, if Mr. Cornstuble’s name recognition is low enough that I have to look him up, my guess is that Representative Buyer is pretty safe at this point. Conclusion: Strong Republican hold.
IN-05: Republican Dan Burton looks to go unchallenged. Conclusion: Strong Republican hold.
IN-06: Republican Mike Pence is to be challenged by Democrat Barry Welsh. I don’t know anything about the poll numbers in this district, and my recollection is that Mr. Welsh had not done much as of the last reporting cycle in terms of fund raising, but he is extremely active online. To date, I have not seen anything that indicates Mr. Pence is in danger of losing his seat, but maybe Internet activism can propel Mr. Welsh. Conclusion: Strong Republican hold.
IN-07: Democratic incumbent Julia Carson is to be challenged by Republican Richard Scott Reynolds. The Republicans have put forth reasonably solid efforts to unseat Rep. Carson in the past, but have been unsuccessful in the past. I haven’t seen anything that makes her an inspiration to me personally, but her constituents seem to like her. Her seat seems fairly safe at this point. Conclusion: Likely Democratic hold.
IN-08: Incumbent John Hostettler appears to be behind in the polls to challenger, Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth. Hostettler’s primary gaffe seems to have been voting against Katrina relief, then failing to visit the part of his district around Evansville devastated by a tornado until too late. Sheriff Ellsworth, by virtue of his job was pretty much the face of disaster relief in the area. Add that to Hostettler’s socially conservative nuttiness (opposition to “divorce on demand” for example) and you have a competitive race. Conclusion: Weak Democratic upset.
IN-09: Incumbent Mike Sodrel will be in a re-rematch against Baron Hill. Hill beat Sodrel in 2002. Sodrel beat Hill in 2004. So, at this point, incumbency and name recognition shouldn’t be much of an advantage to Sodrel. Furthermore, Sodrel may be vulnerable to “culture of corruption” charges because he has apparently taken money from both Tom DeLay and Duke Cunningham. Conclusion: Weak Republican hold.
I’d say there is a reasonable chance for the current 7-2 Republican advantage in Indiana to swing to a 5-4 advantage and an outside chance of moving to a 5-4 Democratic lead.
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