Maureen Groppe, writing for the Indianapolis Star, puts some numbers to a subject I was talking about a few days ago – the chances for Democrats to pick up more seats in Indiana in light of the Democratic victory in a blood red district in Mississippi. The Mississippi district went to Bush in 2004 with 62% of the vote. By contrast IN-04 where Nels Ackerson seeks to unseat Steve Buyer went to Bush with 69% of the vote and IN-03 where Mike Montagano seeks to unseat Mark Souder went to Bush with 68% of the vote.

So, as the article points out, it would be tougher for the Democrats to pick up those seats than the one in Mississippi. It does bear mentioning, however, that the Mississippi district went to the Democrat by 8%. Souder and Buyer have built in advantages, but the Republicans have a lot of baggage, particularly with respect to national offices, and their competitors this year are mounting realistic challenges. These races might draw close enough for the difference to come down to the candidates themselves and their positions; rather than simply an unthinking preference for either the Republican team or the Democratic team. That could be trouble for the incumbents because my sense is that, even among devoted Republicans, Buyer and Souder aren’t exactly beloved, known for constituent outreach, or respected for their accomplishments while in office.

Groppe notes the new House Republican slogan “Change You Deserve” and the fact that it’s already an antidepressant drug slogan. For me, it’s the potentially ominous sarcasm that makes the slogan funny. What if these guys don’t think we deserve much change? Or what if they think we deserve negative change? To me it sounds a lot like “You’ve got what’s coming to you.”