Looks like the race for Indiana’s second Congressional District is getting some national attention. Talking Points Memo has an entry discussing a recent item in the Cook Political Report:
What’s going on in Indiana? Two new Democratic polls show incumbent Reps. John Hostettler (IN-08) and Chris Chocola (IN-02) in tight races. IN-02
A newly released poll taken for Democratic candidate Joe Donnelly by Cooper and Secrest (November 28-29, 504 likely voters), has Democrats crowing about their chances to defeat two-term GOP Rep. Chris Chocola. The poll showed Republican Rep. Chris Chocola ahead of Donnelly by six-points – 46 percent to 40 percent – but taking less than 50 percent of the vote. This will be the second meeting for Chocola and Donnelly. Last year, Chocola beat the Democratic businessman by 9 points – 54 percent to 45 percent.
It’s clear that Chocola hasn’t gotten a solid hold on this Republican-leaning, but marginal district. In the 2002 contest to replace retiring Democratic Rep. Tim Roemer, Chocola won with just 50 percent of the vote. And in 2004, despite outspending Donnelly by a 2-1 margin ($1.4 million to $700,000), Chocola took just 54 percent of the vote. President Bush, meanwhile, won this district in 2004 with 56 percent of the vote. Democratic insiders argue that Chocola has benefited in his last two races from a political environment that was tilted in favor of Republicans. This year, they note, the wind is in Chocola’s face.
(John Hostettler’s competition in Indiana’s Eighth District is, of course, Brad Ellsworth. It also bears mentioning that the Ninth Congressional District can be expected to be competitive with Baron Hill going for the re-rematch against Mike Sodrel. I have no idea what the poll numbers are, but Tom Hayhurst has at least been a decent fund raiser in his race against Mark Souder in Indiana’s 3rd District. Barry Welsh is running against Mike Pence in Indiana’s 6th District — at last glance, fund raising wasn’t remarkable, but Mr. Welsh is certainly working the Internet for all it’s worth (Hi Barry!). Dan Burton is unopposed, and I know nothing at all about Steve Buyer and his apparent opponent, Richard Cornstuble — which is awful since I live in Buyer’s district.)
Josh Marshall’s Talking Points Memo had a great many posts on Rep. Chocola’s ever-changing views on whether he does or doesn’t support privatization of Social Security. Mr. Marshall’s blog did an excellent job covering the Bush administration’s efforts to privatize Social Security before the Republicans apparently gave up on it.
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