A mere 19 years after I left town, Bill Clinton is going to be in Richmond. In addition, he will be campaigning in Lawrenceburg and Fort Wayne on behalf of his wife, Hillary Clinton. She will be campaigning in the state on Thursday with stops planned in Terre Haute and Anderson.
I don’t have a good sense for how Indiana is going to go in the Presidential campaign. I haven’t seen any polling. I suppose, based on the previous contests, things should look fairly good for Clinton. Broadly speaking (and therefore inaccurately in a lot of cases), our white population has a lot in common with our southern cousins. (Though, I’m not sure how much this applies to the Democratic subset of the population). So far, Obama has probably done the worst in states where there are relatively hard economic conditions in areas with working class whites in close competition with working class minorities for jobs. I was about to write that Clinton will do pretty well in the traditionally Democratic strongholds in the northern part of the state — having South Bend in mind — but then it occurred to me that the large black populations in the Region might make Obama competitive up there (if racial voting patterns in past states hold true.) Then there is the fact that Obama is an Illinois politician, also making him competitive, particularly up around Chicago. So, this is a long rambling way of me saying, I don’t know what the hell is going to happen.
I’ll predict that Clinton does well in the old North Central Conference cities, Richmond, Muncie, Anderson, Logansport, etc. Obama will do well in the Region. I think Obama will do fairly well in Indianapolis. Southern Indiana is a mystery to me.
I would guess that Indiana’s white Democrats are fairly similar to Ohio’s, which isn’t necessarily good for Obama. That’s at least true in the northern part of the state, which has the ethnic Catholic population that Hillary has done well with in states such as Ohio. On the other hand, as you note, proximity to Chicago could help. Something like ten percent of Hoosiers get their local TV from Chicago, and given the way voters are distributed that likely includes significantly more than 10 percent of Indiana’s Democratic primary voters. Given the close connection plus the number of Illinois transplant and people who commute across state lines, that could be a factor.
I agree with you about the old auto cities in the northern half of the state, although most such places have a sizeable black population as well. In Muncie in particular, considering the presence of a large university and a decent-sized black population, Obama might be in better shape than he would be in a place such as Kokomo, for instance. I would guess that Obama would do really well in Lafayette and Bloomington and in the part of Marion County that forms the 7th Congressional District.
Southern Indiana is a wild card in my mind as well. My understanding is that the Wabash Valley between TH and Evansville is more Democratic than other rurual parts of the state. One of the most interesting phenomena of this election has been Obama’s success in states with virtually no black people. I don’t know quite what to make of that trend, but I wonder if it would apply regionally within a state?
With respect to University towns, I think Obama might suffer a bit due to the fact that most, if not all of them, will have let out for summer break by the time of Indiana’s primary.
A cynical view is that racial tolerance is easiest where there isn’t that much racial diversity in your area. I think racial intolerance is probably greatest where economic resources are scarce and whites are competing for those resources with a substantial minority population. It’s nice to have someone or something concrete to blame for tough times, and it’s nice to feel like there is someone below you in the pecking order.
There is your pop-psychology moment for the day.
Richmond huh… was Henry Clay the last to come through?
Yes, I’d agree with you Doug, about university towns letteing out, and that’s why the Boilers for Obama are pushing the absentee ballot initiative to get those kids to vote before they leave town. ALSO– with Tippecanoe County’s vote centers starting early, there is no excuse for people not being able to vote before leaving town. We’ll be pushing that too.
Hillary Clinton is about as popular as class basketball in the state of Indiana. Actually, she’s less popular.
If Democrats want a chance to win the state of Indiana in November, they select Obama. If they select Hillary, they’re giving up.
So Obama is “Mighty Milan?”
I think Obama will do better in S. Bend than you think. I’ll bet that Hillary will win SB/ Misshawaka/Elkhart, but not by much. That would actually be a defeat for her.
The Pal-Item say that Harry S. Truman was the last former (and I am assuming sitting) president to come through Richmond. He visited in 1956; thirteen years before I was even born!
One of my friends in Muncie used to live in an unassuming little house just north of Ball State. A picture that came with the house showed John F. Kennedy standing on the front porch with previous home’s owners during a campaign trip there.
Lincoln rolled through Richmond on the way to his final resting place.
I recalled Kennedy campaigned in Richmond. Looking at the Pal-Item, it looks like about 15 presidents have come through there either before, during, or after their terms in office.
Lincoln apparently mentioned that he went through Richmond by train and thought it was pretty. He didn’t mention dropping by Clara’s for a Royal Feast, so I’m skeptical whether he really had been there after all.
T-
Why oh why did you have to post something about Clara’s on a day I’m trying to (purposely) skip lunch?
Cruel…
Richmond’s high school gym could probably accomodate 10,000 for a rally, and they hold this at a fire station with seating for 500? I could see them not wanting to have empty seats, but I would think Bill could turn out a crowd bigger than 500.
Touche, you are all making me salivate with thoughts of a Royal Feast. I didn’t get up to Central Indiana for Christmas last year but am planning to get to Muncie after tax season, 28 days until April 15, ole! The Pizza King in Jeffersonville is ok, but it’s not the same as the Central Indiana Pizza Kings.