It’s no secret that there is no way Trump would ever get my vote. He’s emotionally fragile, intellectually bankrupt, and utterly corrupt. He believes that the office of the Presidency is there to serve him rather than the other way around. His trading on public resources to induce foreign powers to meddle in our elections was exactly the kind of thing the Founders were concerned about when they wrote the Constitution. Federalist 68: “Nothing was more to be desired than that every practicable obstacle should be opposed to cabal, intrigue, and corruption. These most deadly adversaries of republican government might naturally have been expected to make their approaches from more than one quarter, but chiefly from the desire in foreign powers to gain an improper ascendant in our councils. How could they better gratify this, than by raising a creature of their own to the chief magistracy of the Union?”
Also, for good or bad, we have a two party system. If Trump is the Republican nominee, that means the choice is either him or the Democratic nominee. So, if an inanimate carbon rod gets the Democratic nomination, that’s who is getting my vote. Right now, Joe Biden is the Democratic front runner. And he may well come out on top. But I was listening to the latest episode of Dan Carlin’s “Hardcore History.” He’s on part 3 of his series on the rise of Japan in the late 19th century and its subsequent actions in World War II. He describes a scene in December 1941 as the Japanese are taking down a battleship with aircraft. It’s becoming apparent that there’s a new development in warfare. Powerful, expensive ships can be taken down by low cost, easily replaced aircraft. But that’s a bit of an aside. As relevant to the primary, Dan compared the scene to a pack of predators taking down a larger animal bit by bit. As the larger animal takes more damage, it becomes less maneuverable and the pack goes in for the kill. It made me think of the Biden campaign as compared to the pack of other Democratic contenders. Maybe that’s not how it will go — I’m terrible at these sorts of predictions — but that’s the analogy that came to mind.
For my part, I don’t mind Biden, but I like Mayor Pete and Elizabeth Warren. I don’t have strong feelings about Bernie himself, but his online supporters have been fairly off-putting in a way that doesn’t seem nearly so common for supporters of other candidates. In a perfect world, I should be comparing policies, but Presidential campaigns are won or lost on the basis of personalities. The electorate says they care about policy, but when it comes time to vote, they mostly don’t understand the policies and have shaped their understanding of the policies to conform with their personality preferences. I may have better than average understanding of some of these issues, but ultimately, I don’t know enough about the ins and outs of federal laws, rules, and regulations to truly assess the candidates’ plans beyond a pretty superficial level. Nevermind the fact that whatever they propose will have to navigate the legislative process. I’m going to have to trust that the person will do the best they can and will generally make sound decisions.
To me, Buttigieg and Warren have the deepest understanding of the issues. So far as I can tell, they both have the best interests of the country in mind. Last night, Pete gave a speech in Iowa that was very impressive. He’s still a long shot, but it made me think that this election might not be unwinnable for him.
I am ready to galvanize an American majority that is longing for change, done with division, and prepared to act. Iowa, are you with me? #LJ19 pic.twitter.com/1rUIyDaOig
— Pete Buttigieg (@PeteButtigieg) November 2, 2019
There are thousands of people offering their takes on the Democratic primary, so I’m not sure I’m adding a lot of value to anyone’s day with this. But, writing helps me evaluate my own thinking on the subject, and I don’t feel like I’ve been doing enough writing lately. So, here you go.
The great irony of Federalist 68 is that it articulates the method by which Electoral College as a method to prevent corrupt serial grifters like trump. But over the years, the move to pledged electors, “winner-take-all” state elector blocks and the grossly undemocratic nature of the Senate have opened up the office of POTUS to candidates that lose the popular vote.
For me personally and politically, the 2020 election is about defeating trump. It is not a “big idea”, watershed election. The second and third goals are to keep the House and take the Senate.
I think Buttigeig is a strong candidate and would make a good president. Warren is also effective, intelligent and capable. But I am concerned that Buttigeig’s sexual orientation would make him unelectable. Similarly, Warren’s sex and liberal political could make her unelectable. And Warren would have the additional disadvantage of a coastal liberal. They simply do not win presidential elections.
I wish it were otherwise. I wish that a sizable percentage of the population were not bigots, sexists and homophobes. But if there is a way for Democrats to lose elections, they usually find it.
I’ve come to the opinion that it’s a mistake to base my vote on my perception of a candidate’s electability in the eyes of others. I think “electability” considerations are how the Democrats wound up with a losing Kerry candidacy in 2004, and weighed against what ended up being a successful Obama campaign in 2008.
I plan on advocating and voting for whoever I like best when the primaries roll around to Indiana, then getting behind the eventual winner for the general election.
I agree with all this. While yes, Democrats seem to always find some way to lose elections, I have to quit trying to help them by voting on electability and just go with my gut.
I like mayor Pete. Yes, his sexual orientation might get in the way, but I lived through the civil Rights era and know that we can do better… I’ll vote on policy, not race, ethnicity, sexual orientation.
Doug, I think you overestimate John Kerry’s “electability” in 2004. He was a Massachusetts liberal, hardly a moderate. You know who else was/is a Massachusetts liberal? Michael Dukakis and Elizabeth Warren. See a pattern there?
I didn’t really think he was all that liberal. In my mind, he was more of a DLC corporate centrist type. I haven’t bothered to go back and check whether my perception is well-founded, so take that as you will.
I agree with everything Doug has said–and with his evaluations of the candidates. I only disagree with his assumption that sharing his “two cents” doesn’t add anything; it does. Hearing rational analyses from intelligent, reasonable people is always valuable.
I don’t know about inanimate carbon rods, but I have repeatedly said that I would vote for a potted plant if it is the alternative to Trump.
Republican here…I would never vote for Trump for the the reasons Doug articulates very well. Trump shouldn’t be elected dog catcher, much less President of the United States. i was horrified when my party nominated him, and even more horrified when he was elected President. My worst fears of a Trump Presidency have proven true time 100. I never dreamed how bad he would be.
Having said that, I must plead with my Democratic friends to not nominate Elizabeth Warren. (I know you won’t nominate Bernie Sanders.) There are very few candidates Trump could actually beat at the polls, but Warren would certainly be one of them. I can’t vote for her, not that I would vote for Trump…I won’t. I’ll vote third party, or cast a write-in for Ronald Reagan. It doesn’t say in the Constitution you have to be alive to be President.
I think you are underestimating Mayor Pete. He is extremely bright, articulate and competent…all the things Trump is not, the perfect antidote. Plus, Mayor Pete, despite some early diversions, has decided to sound a more moderate position on the issues. Mayor Pete understands messaging and how to reach those midwestern, swing voters. I don’t think his sexuality will be a barrier any more than Obama’s race was a barrier in 2008. After all, Obama won Indiana in 2008.
Four more years of Trump could be the destruction of our Republic. I would plead for my Democratic friends to be more pragmatic in who they nominate. Our country depends on Democrats being reasonable.
It is all about electability. The fate of the nation may turn upon the electability (read centrist proposals) of the Democratic nominee.
Mr. Trump leads Elizabeth Warren by two points among registered voters, the same margin as his win over Hillary Clinton in these states three years ago.
The poll showed Bernie Sanders deadlocked with the president among registered voters, but trailing among likely voters.
The results suggest that Ms. Warren, who has emerged as a front-runner for the Democratic nomination, might face a number of obstacles in her pursuit of the presidency. The poll supports concerns among some Democrats that her ideology and gender — including the fraught question of “likability” — could hobble her candidacy among a crucial sliver of the electorate. And not only does she underperform her rivals, but the poll also suggests that the race could be close enough for the difference to be decisive.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/04/upshot/trump-biden-warren-polls.html
I should add that I’m also okay with Biden. The only D’s I couldn’t vote for are Warren, Bernie and Tulsi Gabbard, who I’m not sure Hillary Clinton was wrong about.
Put it up front: I am a life long registered Democrat but in reality my philosophies are more in line with being an Independent. My thinking has been shaped as by many having been born at the end of the Great Depression, being very poor in my youth, working 100% of my way through college, course work strong on economics, and having been a public school teacher for almost 40 years. My problem/concern with the situation of the two parties is that the Democrats are way left of me and the Republicans simply do not do what their party has been their long philosophy. Right now, the Republicans are defending and being led by Trump—not their long held basic principles.
As for the current candidates for the Democrats: Biden is near to my way of thinking and a known person (BUT I am 80 years old and perhaps he is stronger than I am, simply his age is a concern). Warren is too far left and without both houses being Democrat she would likely not accomplish much of her policies she advocates. Sanders is just way too far left. Pete is starting to move toward the middle and establish himself as a individual and someone I could support Pete’s sexual orientation is a really big factor in being electable–I remember all the discussion as to Pope running the country when JFK was a candidate. Very simply the country may not be ready for it—saying that and watching the “religious folks” continuing to support Trump is a bit unbelievable.
One more point is that I am not favoring a consensus candidate being Clinton.
I too will vote for (support, maybe too strong a term) whoever the Democrat’s nominate
I asked my brother a card carrying Democrat who he voted for in the election and he said Trump because he HATED Hillary. In my opinion he was right Clinton was unappealing to such a large segment of the population. Trump had his simple slogan ‘Make America Great Again’, Clinton instead stated go to my website to see all the wonderful things I’m going to do, just click down to menu 3. ;)
So who do I pick for the Democratic Presidential nomination? It has to be Warren, Biden seems to slimy and mayor Pete’s time is not yet come. How about some simple slogans ‘Dump Trump’ or ‘Trump to the Dump’. or lets go positive
‘America has always been great!’