I think I’ve mentioned this thought before, but I read Todd Beaton quoting Brian Williams and thought I’d mention it again.
It’s like mini-tornadoes…Think about how the primary process changes each state as it moves through. Pennsylvania is now altered politically because all of this happened. Bucks County started this process Republican, it’s now considered a Democratic county. Montgomery County, Philadelphia suburb, ditto, went from majority Republican registration to majority Democrat because of these new voters. In that way this has kind of changed the political landscape.
The conventional wisdom is that the primary process is damaging to the eventual Democratic nominee the longer this thing goes on. And, depending on how divided the Democratic electorate eventually becomes, I suppose that could be the case. But, the antipathy toward Bush and his policies is so deep that, when confronted with more of the same and either Democratic nominee, most of the Democrats will pull the lever for the person to whom they were opposed during the primary. In addition, to offset that division, you have the fact that both of these Democratic nominees are spending a considerable amount of time and money in each state, developing political machinery and getting the lay of the land. I have to think that sort of organization is going to pay dividends come November. Will Indiana vote for a Democrat in the general? Remotely possible, but I doubt it. However, I bet the spread will be closer than in years past. And, down-ticket, the results could be significant. For example, a lot of folks who might admire John McCain won’t necessarily have the warm-fuzzies for Steve Buyer and maybe Nels Ackerson gets a better shot; and so forth across the state and down the ballot.
I work the elections in a heavy republican precinct. I am hoping to see a lower percentage of straight republican ticket voters in November. That would indicate to me that the landscape has indeed shifted. I’ve only seen one democrat carry my precinct – Frank Anderson for Sheriff of Marion County the first time he ran. Folks had it up to their eyeballs with the previous Sheriff and his protege suffered for it.
As for Indiana going D in the general — I’m going to wait and see on that. Like you said, Bush has fewer and fewer admirers and both Hillary and Obama are constructing well oiled machines that can serve again in the fall.