Tight as a Tick in Iowa

The Democratic primary fight in Iowa is “tight as a tick.” John Edwards, Barack Obama, and Hillary Clinton are essentially in a 3-way tie. Several polls have the three candidates polling at levels within the margin of error of one another. Given how tough it is to poll in Iowa, this probably means it’s anybody’s race. The interesting thing will be how secondary candidates’ supporters peel off to support the primary candidates — in the Iowa caucuses, if a candidate doesn’t get above a certain level of support, that candidate’s supporters are supposed to go to their second choice among the candidates that did get more than the threshold level of support. I seem to recall something from 2004 about Edwards and Kucinich striking a deal whereby Kucinich supporters ended up going over to Edwards.