Pakistan’s opposition leader, Benazir Bhutto, has been assassinated.
Let’s see – military strongman with U.S. support. Nukes. A security agency with strong ties to al Qaeda and Islamic extremism. And now, a martyr! Quite a mix we have brewing over there. Maybe India could take this opportunity to make a raid into the Pakistani part of Kashmir.
Sadly I saw this one coming when she returned back home. Just what the world needs (sigh)
Pakistan-Afghanistan, and especially the lawless border area between them, are a much graver threat to our national security than Iraq has been at any time in the last 15 years or so. At first, I thought Obama was crazy for even suggesting it, but why should we be supporting a military dictator who has been unable, and possibly unwilling, to root out the Islamic extremists there? Why wouldn’t it be a better use of our military and diplomatic resources to go into Pakistan oursevles to try to take care of the problem, as opposed to squandering them in Iraq, and forget about Musharaff? Maybe that’s still not a great idea, I don’t know, but I think Pakistan is going to end up being a bigger problem for the next president than Iraq, and the stakes will be higher (see, actual weapons of mass destruction, not just pretend ones).
My limited understanding suggests that Saudi Arabia is and was always a bigger threat than Iraq. Saddam Hussein was a secular megalomaniac. He was a bastard, but a bastard that could generally be counted upon to act in his own immediate, material self interest. Undesirable, perhaps, but manageable. He didn’t really have to rely on anyone else to maintain his power. He wasn’t capable of projecting his power in any noticeable way too far outside of Iraq. And, he kept the lid on all the other crap festering in that country.
By contrast, as I understand it, the Saudi royal family came to power by getting in bed with the Wahabbi Muslims in the area; a sect with very anti-American ideals. I think the royal family has to support or at least look the other way when the Wahabbis do anything. Oil money plus unfettered anti-American religious fervor is a dangerous combination.
Pakistan has also been a recipe for disaster. As I understand it, the ISI — Pakistan’s intelligence agency — has it’s fair share of religious fanatics who have been sympathetic to the Taliban and al Qaeda. The U.S. strengthened all of these groups back in the 80s when we were using them as proxies to fight against the Soviets. When we embraced Musharraf without taking steps to neuter the extremists in the ISI, we probably doomed our fight against bin Laden (who, of course, was a Saudi Arabian Wahabbi who earned his chops fighting against the Soviets with American money on behalf of the Afghanis and Pakistanis.)
I haven’t seen it or read it, but this assassination might make it a particularly good time to go see Charlie Wilson’s War.
Saddam was actually pretty cool in his interactions with us. He would scrape together some weapons, turn on a radar, a screen on our patrolling bomber would light up, and we would turn and blow up the radar station and weapons. A few months later, we would do it again. Everyone seemed pretty happy with the arrangement, including Saddam. Ours was a relationship that worked in it’s own silly way, until el presidente arbusto had to stumble in and screw it all up.