Sylvia Smith has a column for the Fort Wayne Journal Gazette crunching the numbers for Congressional Republicans Mark Souder and Chris Chocola and the signs look a bit discouraging for them.
She is not at all ready to conclude that the Democrats will pick up those seats, but Souder and Chocola, while winning their primaries by comfortable margins, received significantly less support this year than they did in 2004.
So what’s the message Republicans are sending? It could be any of these, or a mix of them all:
•George Bush (50 percent disapproval) and Mitch Daniels (even worse): BOO!
•Incumbents of any stripe: BOO HISS!
•Iraq war, immigration, gas prices: UNPRINTABLE!
I would add the following to the list.
Pending Indictment of Karl Rove in the Valerie Plame case. Bush backed Rove having a security clearence for last 3 years saying that Rove, one of the men along with Cheney at the center of the controversy was innocent because he, Rove, told him so. With Rove’s mug shot on the front page, the Republican lose their key strategist and the Maestro behind the Mightly Wurlitzer. Calls for Cheney to step down are sure to follow.
Up to 15 Republican Congress in addition to the already ousted Duke Cunningham are linked to the FORNIGATE scandal involving corrupt defense contractors, dubious homeland security contracts, bribes and hookers.
The Abramoff/Delay scandal is still gaining momentum. 95% of the Republican congress took money directly from Abramoff and/or Delay.
Already weakening Housing Market this summer may finally spell an end to the Housing Bubble that has been the primary engine of job creation. Warren Buffet has announced his intent to sell off remaining housing related investments. Reminds one of his summer of 1999 take on the Tech bubble.
Al Queda is telling all the world that will listen that it is concentrating its terrorist activities on oil production targets in the Middle East, Indonesia and Africa. Up till now Government soldiers and mercenaries working for Big Oil have successfully been intercepting these attempts. Take out one or more key installation and the price of oil is over $100 a barrel over night.
Possible spontaneous revolt of the suburban white middle class over BushCo’s war on the middle class. Case in point watch tonight’s 60 Minutes segment on Sallie Mae and the 1.9% raise in the cost of Stafford College Loans. All thanks to Albert Lord and rest of the pocket lining crooks at Sallie Mae (including Fishers based USA FUNDS/Group) and the new installed and fabulously corrupt Republican Congressman John Boehner of Ohio.
Last, the Republican’s attempt to scare the old folks over Gay Marriage and the Homosexual agenda may backfire, if Grandma and Grandpa are pissed off about Medicare Part D(for disaster) and the attempt to Privatize Social Security. A major Democratic GOTV attempt to get seniors back to voting Democratic and ingnore Rev Dobson and Falwell’s horse crap may really work this year.
Sorry for the caps lock!!!
Of course any Indiana based newspaper is going to portray the public’s displeasure with congress as anti-incumbent. But poll after poll show that Americans overwhelmingly want the Democrats back in charge. More Republican congressional scandals are popping up ever day.
Everything seemed to be breaking the Democrats last week until Pat Kennedy stole the Cable News headlines from Porter Goss and Fornigate.
Thank God the Kennedy family got Patrick into Rehab ASAP and off all but the Druggie Limbaugh show. I took my parents on a trip to the Doctor’s office and had to sit still while the Old Man listened to Big Pharma ramble on all thick tongued about Teddie’s kid mishap.
caps lock be gone
Worked???
Tom DeLay was on Sunday morning news Georges Stephanapolous program this morning and he predicted Repubs would stay in control of House because Conservatives wouldnt vote for Dems for their views on gay marriage and stem cell research.As oboxious and corrupt as De lay is he may know the pulse of ‘conservative’ thinking. People who think like that have been in power in Washington now for sometime and it may be hard to dislodge them. Besides many House districts have been gerrymandered in such a way as to keep repubs in control and thats one of De Lay finest self-propclaimed accomplishments in TX..De Lay may be laughed at and scorned by many of us but I think he speaks for a sizeable constituency.If Repubs lose control of House, its apt to be on the Iraqi war and and angry Seniors. Thats why Dems had better come up with a coherent plan for Iraq.And it will be interesting to see in Indiana, if it can be measured, just how much DST enactment plays a part.
Voters in IN-2 (and possibly other districts) are ALREADY fed up with their incumbent, Republican representatives; the national scandals are just gravy. When someone like Chris Chocola can bring in President Bush for a personal fundraiser, people just do not believe that he has no influence over decisions that involve federal assets like interstate toll roads or federal issues like time zone decisions. That is why, after the aforementioned fundraiser and rallying speech, Republicans STILL gave Chocola’s primary opponent 30% of the vote. It was a protest vote to show Chocola that his base is upset. The question is this: can someone like Joe Donnelly tap into this pool of discontent? Yes. This is not just an election where any Democrat will win. There are districts in Indiana where incumbent Republicans will likely win, but a challenger like Donnelly has the name recognition, the drive, the personal charisma and the backing to give not just his base, but independents and disaffected Republicans a real choice come November.
Dustin Blythe,
Chocola is potentially very vulnerable if Democrats remind seniors in his district just how much he was out front in support of BushCo’s attempt to privatize Social Security.
If Rove is indicted this summer, he will not be around to orchestrate the Gay Marriage buggaboo campaign needed to keep anxious seniors in the Republican fold. If the, everybody in Wash DC knows he you are a closet case, Ken Mehlman head of the Republican Party has to take up lead of the Anti-Gay campaign then he could be painfully exposed as the self-hating gay man he is. Heaven forbid then what will you tell Grandma???
For Indiana Seniors it is a question of Hate the Gay vs Keeping Social Security and Medicare. Question is how many times will Granny fall for that ruse.
Look Indiana politics are in the state they are in because of the dominance of conservative newspapers and local radio. You can barely get NPR in most of the state. Like I have said before what passes for cutting edge political discourse in much of the state is Paul Harvey and it has been that way for 50 years.
However, The under forty crowd is increasing getting their information from the non traditional corporate media sources like the internet and satellite radio. Local politics being dominated by the likes of WIBC and the Indianapolis Star is not forever.
Another issue that is just coming into focus as to whose yard it will dirty is the immigration and or ‘legal vs legal’ debate.It even splits conservative republicans into border control vs ‘culture first'(religious) republicans.There is developing a new coalition of conservatives who want illegals to be kept out because they are illegal and liberals who want illegals to become legal under some process but also want border control because those coming over illegally are being exploited by corporate greed,as they see it. Its hard to defend exploited illegals in court because people see law as for citizens.
I personally think that by November, immigration( legal or illegal) will become a front burner issue in the whole country and Bush admin will be the BIG loser.Whatever they do will have many people very upset.Its a non-winner issue.( Dems havent figured out yet where they stand on this issue)
Lou,
Related to immigration is a simple fact that no liberal or conservative should attempt to deny. The United States can not forever continue to be the employer of last resort for Latin American countries that have failed to implement population control measures inline with their countries economic growth potential.
Clearly the Republicans are the most to blame on this front. Beginning in the Reagan years they have pandered to Right to Life and various fundamentalist groups that have slashed funding for birth control in Latin America and the developing world. Mexico was head towards below replacement rate fertility by now. Today they are close but have yet to reach that goal.
NAFTA is the other immigration disaster. It has put millions of Mexican farmers agricultural workers out of work. In return the factory jobs NAFTA promised went to China instead. A NAFTA passed with out any labor market controls was the fault of the Clinton Administration Neo-Liberals trusting that they could work with the Republicans if any problems arose after NAFTA was enacted.
What amuses me ,although the situation over all isnt amusing ,is that Bush adminstration has spent so much time bending over backwards to court the Hispanic vote, but now they have to choose between legal and illegal or lose their base.Most hispanic leaders seem to look at everyone as ‘hispanics’..legal or illegal not an issue. So Bush regime has to choose between their base and their Hispanics.If they dont choose ,there’s no way they can say they’re trying to control the border. Couldn’t happen to a more deserving bunch !The chickens are coming home to roost!
I was at a reception last June in Chicago where Howard Dean came and spoke, shortly after he was named DNC chairman. He said then that in 2004 the wedge issue was gay marriage; in 2006 it would be immigration. In South Bend, there has been a strong drive in the hispanic community to get those who are legal registered to vote and they do not really care what the nuances of the Democratic position are, they are voting against the guys who have brought up the whole immigration issue: the Republicans. Later down the road they may pick and choose which candidates or stances to back, but this year the theme is get the bums out!
Dustin,
Very interesting and that fits quite well into this mornings news of Roves Fall strategy which could be paraphrased as “KEEP the BUMS IN’ ( otherwise we’ll have Dems in charge of all the Committees, liberal judges maybe getting nominated ,gay marriage,and even maybe worse, INVESTIGATIONS into Republican disinformation techniques) In other words it’s going to be SUPPORT the CULTURE vs Let’s get rid of the Culture of Corruption. These might be our 2 party mottos, in various forms.
Will Indiana have its own local version?
Dustin & Lou,
Shorter Rove: Keep me out of Prison!!!
Re: “Keep the bums in.” They might as well be saying, “Don’t vote for the other guy, he might hold us accountable for our actions.” Great message.
I think the message is clear. I spoke to several thousand people over two years. The majority liked what they heard. Social Security is not getting better, but worse. Any young person will tell you they would prefer to keep their SS taxes than to pay in. If course Souder’s position is to have young workers save more while paying 10.6% of wages to SS-OASI. Souder supports tax incentives for private accounts, but with deficits, where does the money come from? Rob Peter to pay Paul? They have been doing this for how many decades?
Number two is the budget. In March 2006, the deficit for one month was $85.5 Billion or $1.02 Trillion annualized. On Sunday John McCain said Bush promised to veto the latest funding bill for Katrina and Iraq because it had earmarks in it. I said I would not vote for earmarks. McCain said he would not either and hopes Bush Veto’s the bill. Did Souder vote for the bill or against?
Then there are illegal immigrants. Souder says you cannot send them back and I ask why? We have 19 million U.S. Citizens who have stopped looking for work. We have 4.4 Million unemployed U.S. Citizens. There is no such thing as a job an American will not do.
Then there is energy. The Journal Gazette reported “Souder said there are “no quick fixes†to the country’s energy problems and that it is important – especially for the northeast Indiana region’s manufacturing base – to have a reliable source of energy “even if it is more expensive.â€
Souder agreed that alternative energy has to be subsidized, but “it’s probably going to give us more independence so they don’t have a chokehold on us, long term. That said, we also need to be drilling more. I’m not anti-oil, I just think we need things in additional to oil. I think we need coal. I think we need nuclear. I think we need wind. I think we need solar. We need water. We need oil and gas. We need all of it.â€
This is a real problem. Ethanol consume more energy than it contains. This does nothing for us! Yet politicians are spending our money or a worthless process. Gasoline is close to $3 because we have not extricated ourselves from fossil fuels since 1973. I have ten years experience in Nuclear power. 5 years in high level radioactive waste. What do we do with it? Nearly every reactor in the U.S. will be shut down shortly due to lack of storage space in its spent Fuel Pool. We do not need more energy, no matter what it costs. We need a 21st century energy source that is environmentally friendly, renewable, reliable and cheap.
We have politicians who cannot budget, add, know nothing about energy and buy votes using your money.
Many people I know were overjoyed with the news that Karl Rove was “demoted”, but it seems that he just went one level deeper into the background. The thing that scares me is his new role of overseeing Republican congressional races in 2006. Rove is a master of thinking outside the box; he will find his candidate’s weakness, real or perceived, and run on it like it is a strength. Therefore, I doubly hope that he is indicted and soon.