In response to my last post about the statisticians v. the pundits, a commenter said that the pundits were right that the race would be decided by a razor thin margin in the Electoral College.
My prediction is Obama – 303 to Romney 235. (56.3% to 43.7% in the EC).
Link to my map.
Anyone else care to share their predictions? The winner will get a can full of jack squat. You can generate your own map at: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php
I’ll go out on the proverbial limb, and predict an EV for Obama of 330.
Total guess: 294 to 244 Obama. I just want to make sure I get my guess in there on the off chance I get to gloat about my irrelevancy later.
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bnah
I was on the fence about Colorado. Looks like we split in opposite directions on that one.
I will take the map as drawn at 303 to 235. And when VA is called Obama, you can hit the sack, hit the champaign, or hit the TV with a thrown laptop or tablet.
277-261 Obama. It all ultimately rests with Ohio.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-AsM2ifUiDXE/UJfQu-wqQJI/AAAAAAAAAFE/J-mU3n5MxO4/s320/canvas.png
Obama also crushes Mitt’s chances if he takes and of the trio of NC/VA/FL, but I don’t think that’ll happen.
I cut it 290-219, putting VA & NC for Romney, but everything else Obama.
Missing 29 EVs. Florida to Obama for 319?
Whoops! I have Florida for Romney, so 290-248 Obama.
I live here and I don’t have much faith in Florida going to Obama.
Here’s mine. I made it before the debates and will just stay with it. I have it posted a few other spots and don’t want to get into having multiple picks out there.
Obama 332 Romney 206
Senate 54 D 46 R
House 220 R 215 D
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=rlt
Good luck to all.
I’ll go with Larry Sabato’s final post this morning. Obama 290-Romney 248. The Louisville Courier-Journal had an interesting and humorous article in this morning’s paper about a 269/269 tie in the Electoral College.
Obama – 280, Romney 258.
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bpnR
VA could go O, but I think the Senate race is going to pull it out for R.
Obama 299, Romney 239
Ha. 270towin site is down at 10:00 AM.